Movies · resolved market
Will "I Know What You Did Last Summer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $14-16m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40f37c1ce58cc2ccce69e159d65d879fc16a02d6cd36eabc23003a6bec74eb74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 4c | 7,688$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.41 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…94b6backed Yes | 1c | 3,601$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 12cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 25c | 3,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.96 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 4c | 2,957$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.07 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 48c | 1,979$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.86 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 53c | 1,350$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,211$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.94 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec73…6af3backed Yes | 2c | 1,049$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 51c | 1,002$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.45 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed No | 52c | 955.93$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.19 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 3c | 739.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 73c | 466$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.15 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 12c | 262$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x978d…5eddbacked Yes | 8c | 160$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 65c | 124.32$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd268…105dbacked Yes | 14c | 110.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 79c | 64.58$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43e3…4a48backed Yes | 57c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed No | 68c | 39.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e87…ef0dbacked Yes | 61c | 32.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c44…9b54backed No | 78c | 25.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…1240backed No | 78c | 21.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "I Know What You Did Last Summer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $14-16m?this page
- Will "I Know What You Did Last Summer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $12-14m?Yes won
- Will "I Know What You Did Last Summer" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $12m?No won
- Will "I Know What You Did Last Summer" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $16m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.