Movies · resolved market
Will "I Know What You Did Last Summer" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $16m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbab8e8c1184aa0d3ab2eba33f32c580e4929cba470662718e5609e40e155410b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f68…94b6backed Yes | 0c | 4,033$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 12cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,125$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 4c | 3,112$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.23 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 62c | 2,602$1,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.13 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 26c | 2,061$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.28 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 64c | 2,000$1,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.08 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 30c | 1,521$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.35 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…601abacked Yes | 40c | 1,077$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.63 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 36c | 700$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bd…7469backed Yes | 33c | 376.83$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 74c | 327.8$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a1…85f0backed Yes | 36c | 307.45$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 38c | 263.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 15c | 255.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed No | 77c | 248.69$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 175$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 11c | 169.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 9c | 108.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 61c | 99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…6582backed Yes | 35c | 56.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…f1ffbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 39c | 43.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…8160backed Yes | 50c | 24.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a63…6ef7backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "I Know What You Did Last Summer" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $16m?this page
- Will "I Know What You Did Last Summer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $12-14m?Yes won
- Will "I Know What You Did Last Summer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $14-16m?No won
- Will "I Know What You Did Last Summer" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $12m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.