Movies · resolved market
Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $34m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4015fbd7d31779f1146e60fac7f6a923b2c2aee8da51fc528593c9ebf9b02a38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed No | 46c | 14,356$6,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,642.35 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 1c | 12,827$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.69 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 54c | 12,258$6,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,680.54 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 62c | 7,522$4,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,870.61 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 32c | 3,898$1,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258.68 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed No | 43c | 3,896$1,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,656.88 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…ea17backed No | 49c | 3,353$1,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,647.19 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 72c | 3,000$2,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.38 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd2…9c2cbacked No | 12c | 2,943$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…2e06backed Yes | 39c | 2,052$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…33e9backed No | 17c | 1,962$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.83 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed No | 34c | 1,882$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.34 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 73c | 1,836$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.69 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…5455backed Yes | 42c | 1,828$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,061.39 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 1,649$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 15c | 1,120$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.79 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 47c | 1,075$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.5 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 13c | 998.01$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.37 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed No | 28c | 892.9$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.18 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -93.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 70c | 880.52$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.06 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 5c | 880.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 757.95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 74c | 652.13$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.83 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 62c | 624.69$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.35 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 51c | 600$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.3 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 58c | 523.12$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.64 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 36c | 506.99$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.08 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked Yes | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked No | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 72c | 451.61$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.62 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5d…3deabacked No | 63c | 439.82$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.33 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 25c | 434.91$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.41 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe567…e4debacked No | 38c | 430.87$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.81 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 22c | 376.44$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.39 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 36c | 334.56$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.98 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 57c | 286.97$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.71 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…abd5backed Yes | 68c | 281.52$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.81 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 40c | 272.65$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.35 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 72c | 250$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.78 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 51c | 221.98$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.21 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 61c | 215.64$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.75 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed1b…4c23backed No | 37c | 210.07$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 47c | 197.74$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.28 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…8590backed Yes | 52c | 191.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked No | 32c | 187.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 38c | 171.7$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…71bbbacked No | 41c | 151.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa201…8162backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a8…4902backed Yes | 32c | 123.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.09 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eac…b542backed No | 42c | 116.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0813…c357backed No | 22c | 115.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 49c | 114.04$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.16 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 28c | 111$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed No | 54c | 110$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6455…eff4backed Yes | 55c | 100.91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e87…ef0dbacked No | 46c | 88.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…5cd7backed Yes | 54c | 81.63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked No | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…0b82backed No | 65c | 79.55$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 33c | 58.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 45c | 57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…d97cbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eeb…7d7fbacked Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7a…c772backed No | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef02…4f7ebacked Yes | 72c | 15.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $34m?this page
- Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $34-38m?No won
- Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $38-42m?No won
- Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $42-46m?No won
- Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $46m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.