Middle East · resolved market
Israel strikes Yemen by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x182300e3a71adc8bb6c0dcf6ee2697f084112e8852be11ecbc94b2d5d17a6fb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x469d…3d7dbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98b…850cbacked No | 19c | 3,434$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 3,400$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc763…9e88backed No | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 12c | 498.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 15c | 297.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…32b3backed No | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…86e1backed No | 26c | 189.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | +18.4wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed Yes | 72c | 143.85$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…8e97backed Yes | 78c | 130.05$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6f…08d9backed No | 9c | 112.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d98…af0ebacked No | 18c | 111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a2…0b23backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed No | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…cbbbbacked No | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c83…8a22backed Yes | 25c | 63.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 65c | 49.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed No | 44c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 59c | 32.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c9…2e25backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3033backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f1…9e38backed No | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac80…ed65backed Yes | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.