Movies · resolved market
"The Naked Gun" Rotten Tomatoes score is 90% or higher?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1593129be33494957541e50af5e35fd4468d14f8eea50f20cd10969ce3ed710a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed No | 73c | 3,193$2,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,321.38 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 80c | 1,667$1,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.31 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3da…3d6abacked No | 22c | 1,511$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 20c | 1,482$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.5 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x340d…0f96backed No | 16c | 1,480$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 17c | 1,355$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.64 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 64c | 1,282$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.76 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…981ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,027$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.78 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 55 | 5.5%3 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 28c | 823.91$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.51 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 73c | 788.98$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.05 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcefc…a993backed Yes | 34c | 699.24$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.1 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 51c | 693.8$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.9 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes | 48c | 665.4$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.36 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 17c | 549$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.32 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89df…c5ddbacked No | 18c | 530.13$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355f…0df8backed Yes | 19c | 331.91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.41 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed No | 14c | 260.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e8…cc6cbacked Yes | 51c | 244.99$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.89 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc654…f0debacked Yes | 42c | 198.15$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.17 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.5wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x97a5…c111backed Yes | 22c | 190$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.8 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…63a3backed Yes | 17c | 93.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +486.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 25c | 93.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 79c | 91.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9019…42e0backed Yes | 75c | 87.91$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa53…56c0backed Yes | 23c | 84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca48…2c02backed Yes | 44c | 56.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78b2…26abbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed Yes | 38c | 31.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed No | 53c | 21.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x053e…6422backed Yes | 73c | 20.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…fb4abacked No | 78c | 19.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- "The Naked Gun" Rotten Tomatoes score is 90% or higher?this page
- "The Naked Gun" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 60–69%?No won
- "The Naked Gun" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 70–79%?No won
- "The Naked Gun" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 80–89%?No won
- "The Naked Gun" Rotten Tomatoes score is less than 60%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.