Tweets · resolved market
Elon Musk tweets 25+ times Tuesday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21e59a80b29c6b8645b14b47ad8bc3606cedee683ce31d49a557f13a98ac64b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2256…b932backed Yes | 29c | 1,547$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.27 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked No | 58c | 1,156$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.64 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1580…a7c9backed No | 56c | 1,049$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.55 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 38c | 707.7$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.66 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 19c | 657.8$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.47 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…7d33backed Yes | 49c | 609.6$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 28c | 607.79$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.94 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…d936backed No | 68c | 600$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 3c | 571$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked No | 70c | 569.5$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.64 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…2ab2backed Yes | 43c | 517.27$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 33c | 499.98$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.49 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c58…b4e0backed No | 79c | 407.4$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b1…5a3fbacked Yes | 28c | 396.71$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…6cdebacked Yes | 30c | 350$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Yes | 33c | 322.32$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.69 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed No | 68c | 311.97$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed No | 46c | 236.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.03 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked Yes | 22c | 220$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Yes | 48c | 208.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac1c…9faebacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a0…2881backed Yes | 46c | 178$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 10c | 165.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…1e59backed No | 44c | 162.57$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2f…a397backed No | 57c | 159.77$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…fbd4backed No | 63c | 158.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa53…56c0backed Yes | 39c | 156.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 48c | 156$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7e…01afbacked No | 67c | 150.87$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x048d…a493backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…4d70backed Yes | 29c | 149.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 19c | 141.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb626…e223backed No | 71c | 140.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x954d…f657backed Yes | 15c | 135$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba4…0caabacked Yes | 31c | 133.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 71c | 116.11$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…8908backed No | 43c | 115.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 70c | 115.09$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8a…dad5backed Yes | 54c | 115$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5d…b48abacked No | 67c | 111.32$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…6d97backed No | 68c | 106.15$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…08d1backed Yes | 38c | 104.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc8…a1b2backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +139%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 26c | 89.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…51a3backed No | 67c | 84.96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7471…d10dbacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f47…ed4ebacked No | 61c | 75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5941…df44backed No | 76c | 72.11$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…1c02backed Yes | 57c | 70.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bc…b218backed Yes | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 46c | 67.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed No | 45c | 66.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x962d…a253backed No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x609d…4bf0backed No | 48c | 56.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb604…012fbacked Yes | 39c | 56.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9c…80d2backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 38c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed No | 66c | 37.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x121c…0475backed No | 65c | 34.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…340bbacked No | 47c | 34.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8d…70febacked No | 65c | 32.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked No | 65c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbd…92b2backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae3…c652backed No | 67c | 29.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6451…4736backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…b1e3backed No | 68c | 26.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…6c04backed No | 51c | 22.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e1…a1d2backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed No | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 109 | 14.7%16 W · 93 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.