Ukraine · resolved market
Trump and Putin shake hands by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b98f85eb09b7192f261738f015a97f602c6c67eba4d7771bf15d1c460dcd4e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x982a…48aebacked No | 4c | 17,351$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e4…eff6backed No | 2c | 4,521$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.17 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked No | 4c | 4,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 4c | 3,636$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.65 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 6c | 3,300$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 2,992$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 2c | 2,705$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 21c | 2,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 4c | 1,733$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 2c | 1,724$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x360b…a057backed No | 9c | 1,602$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 4c | 1,489$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18b4…08fabacked No | 8c | 1,125$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 6c | 735.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 56 | 5.4%3 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…1e3ebacked Yes | 68c | 697.81$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 5c | 527.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked No | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x513f…1492backed No | 6c | 459.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 2c | 452.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 79c | 444$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.35 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 4c | 399.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 97 | 34%33 W · 64 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2f…067bbacked No | 3c | 371.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 43c | 370$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6395…6735backed Yes | 68c | 305.9$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed No | 30c | 299.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked No | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…0e07backed No | 24c | 189.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked Yes | 64c | 149.74$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1492…97dabacked Yes | 69c | 144$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…1211backed No | 8c | 137.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b8…c770backed No | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc446…d9aabacked No | 20c | 98.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 17c | 83.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…84cbbacked No | 31c | 79.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc906…1969backed No | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf747…f687backed Yes | 75c | 65.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…9356backed No | 21c | 51.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcea…e78bbacked Yes | 80c | 43.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes | 73c | 39.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 55c | 35.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa909…1c77backed No | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed No | 38c | 28.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…2043backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.