Us Politics · resolved market
Trump approval Up or Down this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0071026c83f3f71b131ef6e57b8437bb13ebe2fa98d894b1c24dd822754d63ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Up | 1c | 3,900$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…4f9dbacked Up | 29c | 2,022$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.61 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb4…a92abacked Down | 73c | 2,000$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Up | 22c | 1,266$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.62 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…f2ddbacked Down | 78c | 733.34$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.1 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab0…d582backed Down | 49c | 450.71$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.89 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Up | 32c | 413.47$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.39 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed Up | 35c | 284.79$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.59 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Up | 27c | 229.17$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.92 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceeb…4985backed Down | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Up | 13c | 184.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Up | 61c | 169.54$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.72 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked Down | 79c | 142.29$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…657fbacked Up | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Up | 27c | 126.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Down | 53c | 123.21$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.31 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9596…b1e4backed Up | 25c | 109.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Down | 38c | 104.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Down | 64c | 100.67$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Up | 22c | 92.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc202…2afdbacked Down | 71c | 87.6$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe597…9c19backed Down | 67c | 73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Up | 17c | 71.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Up | 24c | 58.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9d…478abacked Up | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc28a…ac64backed Down | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…6cd7backed Down | 54c | 37.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…0b1abacked Up | 50c | 33.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed0…be68backed Down | 61c | 32.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a4…9281backed Up | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x203c…95f1backed Down | 65c | 29.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8beb…fe0bbacked Down | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Up | 39c | 29.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d74…5dbfbacked Down | 75c | 26.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40d…1474backed Down | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a2…dcdabacked Down | 50c | 24.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c6…e912backed Down | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.