World Politics · resolved market
Will Karol Nawrocki win the most votes in the first round of the Polish Presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3806506bd5e8f88199db61d0174113483d62d7fed9b1c49f0aadd773caed02f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $656,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $452,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $656,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 6c | 49,055$2,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,990.58 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca3…5aa6backed Yes | 6c | 31,837$2,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,028.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…cfc8backed Yes | 7c | 25,769$1,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,794.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48cd…ab2ebacked Yes | 0c | 20,711$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8445…3e33backed Yes | 3c | 19,649$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +201.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca35…ade5backed Yes | 8c | 16,165$1,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,291.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 4c | 16,148$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.88 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 1c | 16,047$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.52 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…0e96backed Yes | 23c | 10,700$2,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,424.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 10,500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed Yes | 7c | 10,129$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.39 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 5c | 10,118$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.72 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb6…9452backed Yes | 6c | 9,332$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9510…9d19backed Yes | 11c | 9,098$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +1,386.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed Yes | 5c | 8,838$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.46 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ca…4faebacked Yes | 8c | 7,902$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a21…ac9cbacked No | 78c | 7,342$5,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,601.61 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.37per pick | 59cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f29…dd03backed Yes | 4c | 6,923$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72e1…7d89backed Yes | 10c | 6,711$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.13 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 6,562$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.9 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 4c | 6,490$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.09 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69d4…15e7backed Yes | 5c | 6,360$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed Yes | 6c | 6,078$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.02 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +165%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…ce66backed Yes | 5c | 6,049$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +107.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.65 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 9c | 5,283$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.26 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25ab…84f7backed Yes | 7c | 5,260$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.43 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3516…05a0backed Yes | 3c | 5,102$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4040…e8abbacked Yes | 8c | 5,099$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 11cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe045…a794backed Yes | 6c | 4,990$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f95…9bd4backed Yes | 6c | 4,975$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.47 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 4,874$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.77 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9df…0c6cbacked Yes | 21c | 4,827$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x719c…6165backed Yes | 13c | 4,623$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e6…d30abacked Yes | 6c | 4,583$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.41 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4c…8138backed Yes | 11c | 4,577$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 4,570$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.48 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…9727backed Yes | 4c | 4,467$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 5c | 4,298$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.1 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x201e…323fbacked Yes | 12c | 4,290$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 26cpaid | +152.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02a9…2882backed Yes | 14c | 4,184$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 7c | 4,090$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.33 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e29…20e2backed Yes | 4c | 3,790$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…ff70backed Yes | 5c | 3,199$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…32b3backed Yes | 6c | 3,189$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.79 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 4c | 3,182$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.66 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 9c | 3,154$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.3 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 10c | 3,114$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.34 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7a…332abacked Yes | 7c | 3,109$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked No | 72c | 3,020$2,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.02 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b8…762dbacked Yes | 5c | 3,000$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb867…c888backed Yes | 6c | 2,966$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa01b…1ea8backed Yes | 10c | 2,769$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…1a79backed Yes | 4c | 2,572$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 10cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81fa…41c9backed Yes | 7c | 2,500$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.5 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1537…c480backed Yes | 4c | 2,444$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.54 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 2c | 2,222$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 110 | 13.6%15 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x014d…62ccbacked Yes | 2c | 2,207$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7408…db0dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,187$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1595…33b2backed Yes | 45c | 2,143$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 10c | 2,100$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.25 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e49…c24cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,080$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce5…cc64backed Yes | 10c | 2,063$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…0843backed Yes | 5c | 1,952$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…e7cabacked Yes | 11c | 1,918$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.42 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 9c | 1,916$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.56 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…5e8bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,913$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6563…c9bcbacked Yes | 7c | 1,860$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 6c | 1,650$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…1cb2backed Yes | 12c | 1,417$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.66 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 9c | 1,400$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.15 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4382…ed8cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,374$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1c…acecbacked Yes | 3c | 1,363$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 11cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…a348backed Yes | 11c | 1,317$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.99 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd64d…722ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,307$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.09 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 10cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 10c | 1,148$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.98 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 5c | 1,145$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed Yes | 9c | 1,120$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +116.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed Yes | 5c | 1,095$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e3…0281backed Yes | 4c | 1,070$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,020$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.11 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +7.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +166.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d66…a385backed Yes | 3c | 1,013$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Yes | 8c | 999.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 142 | 40.8%58 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5572…984ebacked Yes | 6c | 955.86$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477c…9cbabacked Yes | 6c | 944.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae4…a076backed Yes | 6c | 888.45$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 10c | 871.5$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.38 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed Yes | 11c | 850$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.55 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 842.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.59 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe300…3a04backed Yes | 5c | 816.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x541d…e098backed Yes | 12c | 775.93$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 8c | 766.4$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +147.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…901abacked Yes | 10c | 718.3$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +154.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x220c…00ebbacked Yes | 18c | 684.13$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +204.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca01…4103backed Yes | 5c | 661.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed Yes | 5c | 649.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Karol Nawrocki win the most votes in the first round of the Polish Presidential election?this page
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski win the most votes in the first round of the Polish Presidential election?Yes won
- Will Sławomir Mentzen win the most votes in the first round of the Polish Presidential election?No won
- Will another candidate win the most votes in the first round of the Polish Presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.