World Politics · resolved market
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win the most votes in the first round of the Polish Presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8a8cd4602a05b6dd7a87c0f793544e2a8db6d0d1ffc7b600d933399651469a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $767,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $878,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $767,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 8c | 32,202$2,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,730.63 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked No | 1c | 16,164$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.12 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ea…62aebacked No | 5c | 13,650$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +138.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 4c | 13,625$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.42 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 9c | 13,493$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.83 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca3…5aa6backed No | 9c | 12,195$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…cfc8backed No | 7c | 10,804$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 0c | 10,600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6da5…a86bbacked No | 0c | 10,414$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ee86backed No | 5c | 8,848$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.19 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72e1…7d89backed No | 10c | 7,561$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.09 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed No | 10c | 7,284$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.18 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a21…ac9cbacked Yes | 66c | 6,383$4,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,185.56 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.37per pick | 59cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed No | 8c | 6,182$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.27 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 1c | 6,000$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 10c | 5,732$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.25 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 5c | 5,672$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.85 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…0711backed Yes | 65c | 5,000$3,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 10c | 4,658$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.95 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 8c | 4,470$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.45 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4040…e8abbacked No | 10c | 4,469$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 11cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked No | 11c | 3,556$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.11 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 8c | 3,519$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.99 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed No | 5c | 3,294$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.65 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 10c | 3,051$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.91 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…614dbacked No | 6c | 3,032$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.44 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed No | 4c | 2,947$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.49 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd3…ac03backed No | 5c | 2,812$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4985…28bdbacked No | 3c | 2,775$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…1a79backed No | 8c | 2,731$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 10cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed No | 6c | 2,475$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.14 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…fa6fbacked No | 6c | 2,286$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 9cpaid | +126.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 9c | 2,144$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.12 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81fa…41c9backed No | 7c | 2,000$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 78c | 1,886$1,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.07 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69d4…15e7backed No | 6c | 1,778$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed No | 12c | 1,752$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.2 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc221…dbefbacked No | 4c | 1,650$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked No | 9c | 1,326$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.06 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 7c | 1,286$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.94 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…901abacked No | 4c | 1,191$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +154.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…32b3backed No | 10c | 1,125$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 75c | 1,080$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.66 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44f1…13dcbacked No | 7c | 1,049$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 967.22$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed No | 3c | 927.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 110 | 13.6%15 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x541d…e098backed No | 3c | 869.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…ff70backed No | 7c | 866.55$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3911…2a50backed No | 9c | 864.6$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 21cpaid | +151.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…2ae8backed No | 11c | 837.57$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.92 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66be…5544backed No | 2c | 774.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed Yes | 76c | 751.76$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.95 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe300…3a04backed No | 6c | 712.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 4c | 706.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 6c | 643.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked No | 8c | 617.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4f…6777backed No | 5c | 580.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed No | 11c | 579.78$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d0c…8a04backed No | 7c | 548$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed No | 3c | 534.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f78…68a4backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +173.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 2c | 482.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked No | 3c | 449$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 8c | 423.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 101 | 8.9%9 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfff0…e4a8backed No | 4c | 420.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4382…ed8cbacked No | 3c | 392.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…90f2backed No | 9c | 371.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa600…d26dbacked No | 6c | 336.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 8cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65d7…92bcbacked No | 3c | 335$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477c…9cbabacked No | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed No | 6c | 299.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 70c | 274$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.93 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed No | 9c | 269.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2d…feafbacked No | 7c | 264$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3b…af03backed No | 8c | 218$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 7c | 209.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f24…2bd8backed No | 7c | 202$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…3ccbbacked No | 8c | 180.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x645c…19dfbacked No | 10c | 152.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa4…a3afbacked No | 7c | 151$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd878…74efbacked Yes | 69c | 144.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fd…ea56backed Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed49…2511backed No | 13c | 129.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 19cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…e030backed No | 10c | 127$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1940…e958backed No | 13c | 116.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8871…1d65backed No | 10c | 114.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +134%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c0…01b6backed No | 14c | 101.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf12…8442backed No | 15c | 101.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…25f3backed No | 13c | 99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb88…c847backed No | 14c | 76.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe4…3ac0backed No | 17c | 72.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski win the most votes in the first round of the Polish Presidential election?this page
- Will Karol Nawrocki win the most votes in the first round of the Polish Presidential election?No won
- Will Sławomir Mentzen win the most votes in the first round of the Polish Presidential election?No won
- Will another candidate win the most votes in the first round of the Polish Presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.