Tennis · resolved market
Will Carlos Alcaraz win 3:2 against Jannik Sinner?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5d04ab3facc7bebc6d3596dc9ae0459b68fc3e850b107bca5c3814557fd0a8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda88…ee37backed Yes | 19c | 3,350$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…a749backed Yes | 20c | 3,000$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.33 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 74c | 1,517$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.8 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 19c | 1,500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 33c | 1,500$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 600 | 53.8%323 W · 277 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed No | 67c | 890.34$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.81 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…d807backed Yes | 31c | 600$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb44a…8e18backed Yes | 19c | 517.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -58%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ed…f17dbacked Yes | 20c | 493.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…733fbacked Yes | 29c | 479.86$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 79c | 375.1$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.77 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed No | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed Yes | 18c | 284.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4e…62d5backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddd…53ebbacked Yes | 21c | 265.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Yes | 22c | 227.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3d…bf10backed Yes | 41c | 219.51$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Yes | 18c | 203.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 7c | 177$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7324…b7edbacked Yes | 19c | 133.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 718 | 57.7%414 W · 304 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de3…069ebacked Yes | 11c | 108$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…63d8backed Yes | 16c | 105$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9419…4201backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…522dbacked No | 54c | 97.08$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3885…35debacked Yes | 19c | 80.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb72f…47acbacked Yes | 27c | 74.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb6…f162backed Yes | 23c | 69.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 43c | 67.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60d…57bfbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Carlos Alcaraz win 3:2 against Jannik Sinner?this page
- Will Carlos Alcaraz win 3:0 against Jannik Sinner?No won
- Will Carlos Alcaraz win 3:1 against Jannik Sinner?No won
- Will Jannik Sinner win 3:0 against Carlos Alcaraz?No won
- Will Jannik Sinner win 3:1 against Carlos Alcaraz?Yes won
- Will Jannik Sinner win 3:2 against Carlos Alcaraz?No won
- Will any other outcome occur in Alcaraz vs. Sinner?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.