Tennis · resolved market
Will Jannik Sinner win 3:1 against Carlos Alcaraz?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa92b0399cd8291c94e1068c5b1e230b449415db0b097d67bcd7ce8870ef4a5bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Yes | 31c | 1,924$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325.9 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…a749backed Yes | 21c | 1,244$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.16 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x654b…c791backed Yes | 21c | 963.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.75 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 79c | 674.12$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.2 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 80c | 600$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Yes | 37c | 580$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4662…b73abacked No | 70c | 568.76$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f2…0659backed Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd843…7d56backed Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.19 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 38c | 460$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.6 | 668 | 31.3%209 W · 459 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Yes | 16c | 420$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.8 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 51c | 329.99$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked No | 79c | 329.56$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.44 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe7…8637backed Yes | 22c | 274.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…61a7backed Yes | 22c | 274.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.09 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…733fbacked Yes | 54c | 202$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed No | 75c | 179.99$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…550bbacked Yes | 21c | 166.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…e866backed Yes | 28c | 150.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 21cpaid | +204.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.58 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…cb47backed No | 76c | 125$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98be…b7cabacked Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 12cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd609…8543backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…63d8backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab5b…9b70backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6d…4747backed Yes | 22c | 91.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.84 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jannik Sinner win 3:1 against Carlos Alcaraz?this page
- Will Carlos Alcaraz win 3:0 against Jannik Sinner?No won
- Will Carlos Alcaraz win 3:1 against Jannik Sinner?No won
- Will Carlos Alcaraz win 3:2 against Jannik Sinner?No won
- Will Jannik Sinner win 3:0 against Carlos Alcaraz?No won
- Will Jannik Sinner win 3:2 against Carlos Alcaraz?No won
- Will any other outcome occur in Alcaraz vs. Sinner?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.