Tweets · resolved market
Elon Musk tweets 25+ times Thursday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc7dfeee28a657bb9ef8385eb372c2e45ca2bd061572132873c3bfd329acd11f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 10,366$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed No | 17c | 1,750$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.19 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed No | 21c | 401.83$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.72 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 22c | 156.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 76c | 130.02$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 12c | 126.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe07…d839backed No | 41c | 124.78$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5352…a8d3backed No | 43c | 115.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…dba1backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…60e7backed No | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 61c | 67.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 19c | 60.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a54…e581backed Yes | 78c | 56.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed No | 26c | 50.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked Yes | 60c | 42.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7965…e542backed Yes | 78c | 40.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 55c | 35.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 82 | 11%9 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Yes | 70c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 109 | 14.7%16 W · 93 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 77c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec88…e0d5backed Yes | 80c | 16.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.