Us Politics · resolved market
Record low border encounters in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85df09e973fab0d9c66d616ff80850d7af989c0b4ec9f7a5463f974e03be804f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5172…0581backed Yes | 1c | 12,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 21c | 2,998$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,356.81 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 32c | 2,220$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,502.98 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed No | 13c | 1,999$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,731.21 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked No | 37c | 1,517$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked No | 15c | 1,096$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.51 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa972…d075backed No | 12c | 1,076$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.03 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 52c | 999.99$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.99 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa478…ddbfbacked Yes | 63c | 631.77$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 70c | 630.01$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.39 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 39c | 540.12$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.98 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 75c | 540$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.6 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf422…6743backed Yes | 59c | 507.56$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -6.5wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 64c | 470$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77a6…3606backed Yes | 65c | 455.23$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x500c…d0c0backed No | 45c | 407.1$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yes | 76c | 400.84$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.25 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…22b0backed No | 30c | 400.6$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9f…e8c9backed Yes | 66c | 396.42$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +98%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed No | 11c | 366.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.37 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 27c | 349.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6704…d171backed Yes | 59c | 320$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 68c | 259.99$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.19 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed No | 38c | 239.98$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.19 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +9.1wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xccce…2c7cbacked Yes | 70c | 225.26$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.68 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 44c | 221.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.32 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 27c | 219.92$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.3 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb56…5464backed No | 48c | 200.93$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 38c | 200$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ff…d1cbbacked Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 28c | 195.73$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.17 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 28c | 176.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.28 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed0…92debacked Yes | 57c | 160.34$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 152$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.46 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 57c | 127.85$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.87 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 10c | 105.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.31 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a3…5532backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd5…f4f1backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 67cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | -17.3wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked No | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 57c | 96.68$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e3…0fcdbacked Yes | 62c | 96.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 65c | 90$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 52c | 81.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed Yes | 70c | 80$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed Yes | 63c | 79.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 27c | 78.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.44 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42e2…89c5backed No | 37c | 69.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…624abacked No | 47c | 69.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 38c | 65.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed49…d8c7backed Yes | 62c | 64.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…fbfabacked Yes | 63c | 55.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…ed09backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf72…723abacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8f…162cbacked Yes | 74c | 48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 41c | 46.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aad…2b62backed No | 61c | 35.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 69c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd64f…cedebacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…57bdbacked Yes | 66c | 32.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…5f91backed Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 116 | 12.9%15 W · 101 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92df…5168backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe7…9563backed Yes | 61c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.