TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pacers vs. Cavaliers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pacersof Pacers, Cavaliers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,648,227
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,684,577

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,648,227 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 601 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x011f…1122backed Cavaliers10c420,872$43,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,018.1846426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae36…8fb5backed Pacers13c129,883$16,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113,449.8610357.3%59 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Cavaliers77c107,964$83,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83,398.4729957.2%171 W · 128 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0269…128ebacked Cavaliers71c93,463$66,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66,344.151145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-38.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x05b9…af0abacked Pacers29c91,068$26,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,815.312240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Pacers26c89,083$23,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,649.8528341.7%118 W · 165 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18d2…81e0backed Cavaliers71c84,659$59,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,998.322369.6%16 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+25.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Pacers23c58,937$13,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,092.61,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd44c…ab91backed Pacers27c56,452$15,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,286.2428347.7%135 W · 148 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Cavaliers73c49,569$36,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,383.6766853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f2…5495backed Pacers26c39,365$10,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,965.025536.4%20 W · 35 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Cavaliers75c33,049$24,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,813.121,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Pacers30c30,000$8,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,099.9880146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf33…261fbacked Pacers25c22,246$5,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,726.4617420.1%35 W · 139 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e75…0143backed Pacers23c21,914$4,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,949.468146.9%38 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d45…b661backed Pacers11c21,731$2,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,263.7213731.4%43 W · 94 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Pacers24c20,412$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,412.0531453.5%168 W · 146 L+0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fe0…d994backed Pacers27c20,227$5,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,820.9637448.7%182 W · 192 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x484c…94d9backed Cavaliers0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Cavaliers78c20,000$15,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,499.9759653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c70…232abacked Pacers19c19,056$3,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,3905337.7%20 W · 33 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+26%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Cavaliers72c18,790$13,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,444.8862351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f66…8938backed Pacers10c15,336$1,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,739.0226431.8%84 W · 180 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Cavaliers79c15,010$11,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,793.418333.7%28 W · 55 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5aca…8b98backed Pacers17c15,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,500.173036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+30.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e11…9bacbacked Cavaliers67c14,927$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0002138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Cavaliers77c12,970$9,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,986.8736057.5%207 W · 153 L-14.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f9a…06d0backed Pacers26c12,795$3,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,507.515261.5%32 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Pacers27c11,620$3,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,438.519149.7%95 W · 96 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6790…5e06backed Pacers22c11,516$2,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,940.977335.6%26 W · 47 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Pacers27c11,259$2,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,274.3736843.8%161 W · 207 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe47c…3afabacked Pacers27c11,111$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,111.1123342.9%100 W · 133 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ed3…23abbacked Cavaliers74c10,864$8,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,039.151050%5 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-29.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Cavaliers71c10,600$7,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,539.8418146.4%84 W · 97 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Pacers23c10,397$2,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,975.8537734%128 W · 249 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9570…398dbacked Pacers23c10,001$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,700.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bd0…0f3fbacked Pacers26c10,001$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,400.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6932…e4a7backed Pacers24c10,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,6002445.8%11 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+44.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x18d8…a159backed Cavaliers74c9,991$7,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,393.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4be…db5cbacked Cavaliers77c9,990$7,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,692.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Pacers35c9,640$3,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,255.436748.2%177 W · 190 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2bd…dce0backed Cavaliers77c9,542$7,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,341.777745%350 W · 427 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pacers29c8,143$2,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,782.962,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Cavaliers75c8,000$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,999.9916641%68 W · 98 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Cavaliers75c7,888$5,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,948.770640.8%288 W · 418 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Pacers23c7,650$1,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,906.981,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Pacers27c7,582$2,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,554.2176850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1571…c4e6backed Pacers28c7,345$2,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,316.6419419.1%37 W · 157 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe343…469bbacked Pacers27c7,000$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,1103100%3 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+291.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Pacers30c7,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,90019448.5%94 W · 100 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b7e…ce6dbacked Cavaliers79c6,918$5,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,464.93644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Pacers22c6,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,679.711,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Pacers19c5,379$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,378.8159140.8%241 W · 350 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Pacers20c5,002$1,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,993.2614434%49 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8f0b…eb6dbacked Cavaliers77c5,000$3,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,85022137.6%83 W · 138 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x920d…38adbacked Pacers26c4,615$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,415.389849%48 W · 50 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+22.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Cavaliers76c4,581$3,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,492.6296447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7feb…ef2ebacked Pacers25c4,516$1,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,387.182100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+178.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Pacers23c4,328$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,328.225536.9%94 W · 161 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb42d…3d11backed Pacers30c4,213$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,952.513636.1%13 W · 23 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+32.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5446…9a43backed Cavaliers75c4,164$3,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,123540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid+49.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked Pacers15c4,010$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,403.218518.4%34 W · 151 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d19…7e13backed Cavaliers75c4,008$3,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,005.84250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Cavaliers76c4,000$3,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,04079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e5c…57fcbacked Cavaliers75c4,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7678…102ebacked Pacers23c4,000$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0801266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb22a…f94abacked Cavaliers77c3,968$3,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,055.481338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Pacers10c3,859$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,466.061,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19b8…9c8ebacked Pacers20c3,500$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,80038027.1%103 W · 277 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e0…1dd2backed Pacers30c3,387$1,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,359.66344.4%28 W · 35 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa53e…8ba5backed Pacers24c3,377$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,575.163043.3%13 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+30.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Pacers33c3,333$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,233.1147542.3%201 W · 274 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89ed…52d3backed Pacers26c3,171$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,356.641838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-20.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x007b…adc6backed Pacers17c3,004$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,496.5314727.9%41 W · 106 L-7.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Cavaliers73c3,000$2,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1907953.2%42 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Cavaliers74c3,000$2,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,22047848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Cavaliers77c3,000$2,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,311.291,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3043…2cbbbacked Cavaliers77c3,000$2,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,298.843966.7%26 W · 13 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+19.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b42…ae6ebacked Pacers25c2,806$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,098.0613636.8%50 W · 86 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e47…a9a9backed Pacers26c2,718$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,017.7234852.3%182 W · 166 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked Cavaliers75c2,674$2,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,005.536339.7%25 W · 38 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x44f8…cf9cbacked Pacers16c2,670$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,239.312138.1%8 W · 13 L+3.1wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+58.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Pacers27c2,630$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,920.8720248%97 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Cavaliers79c2,590$2,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,046.2373051.8%378 W · 352 L-2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x617a…07b4backed Pacers17c2,579$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,140.181631.3%5 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick17cpaid+78.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Cavaliers79c2,556$2,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,024.6573647.3%348 W · 388 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb142…cd11backed Pacers27c2,430$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,773.94148.8%20 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+35.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x85e4…88bdbacked Pacers25c2,400$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,800475%3 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick30cpaid+151.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x28da…b97dbacked Pacers22c2,400$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8726230.6%19 W · 43 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed Cavaliers74c2,341$1,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,726.8312040.8%49 W · 71 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xed0e…b305backed Pacers3c2,329$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,25921723.5%51 W · 166 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+75.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cce…6e85backed Pacers11c2,300$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,037.822039.1%86 W · 134 L+14.0wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Pacers24c2,230$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,690.35856.9%33 W · 25 L+8.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+39.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf9d5…4739backed Pacers26c2,015$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,491.441250%6 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+47.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x62a8…97d0backed Pacers32c2,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,36024855.6%138 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Pacers15c2,000$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7007051.4%36 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3575…4f23backed Pacers19c2,000$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6201844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+85%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2373…ddfabacked Cavaliers74c2,000$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,479.996747.8%32 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb341…cbdcbacked Pacers23c2,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,539.951241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+60.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc82e…9460backed Pacers24c2,000$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,511.1117044.1%75 W · 95 L-0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.