Us Politics · resolved market
Trump trade deal in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x173a4ef5398c3ed0797064e57b2f514e549b8eed36d3514cf762e99521a6c5bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $496,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $581,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $496,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 182 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed No | 26c | 30,230$7,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,388.94 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb843…1b3fbacked Yes | 77c | 24,907$19,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,157.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 73c | 24,349$17,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,834.57 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed No | 73c | 20,842$15,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,612.67 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed No | 23c | 17,371$4,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,319.44 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d8…9c51backed Yes | 0c | 16,071$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 10c | 14,964$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530.01 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf11d…2806backed Yes | 0c | 14,172$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 51c | 14,084$7,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,174.33 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 70c | 12,492$8,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,757.99 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb4…ae30backed Yes | 45c | 9,305$4,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,165.48 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 41cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 76c | 7,125$5,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,428.41 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…74cebacked No | 25c | 6,403$1,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,802.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa03c…27ecbacked Yes | 8c | 5,572$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 67c | 5,270$3,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,516.65 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed No | 44c | 4,993$2,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,794.98 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 77c | 4,322$3,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,346.31 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed No | 22c | 4,000$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,120 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +55%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 32c | 3,600$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156.48 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 75c | 3,368$2,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,532.72 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…8c3dbacked Yes | 78c | 3,105$2,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,432.94 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3f…4b41backed Yes | 75c | 3,091$2,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,333.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 24c | 3,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,280 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 17c | 2,801$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,329.64 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 16c | 2,397$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,021.71 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…32ecbacked Yes | 78c | 2,321$1,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,816.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 62c | 2,217$1,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.93 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes | 76c | 2,179$1,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,648.2 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 76c | 2,052$1,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,561.38 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 13c | 1,790$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550.14 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 40c | 1,756$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.04 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef8f…8660backed No | 15c | 1,634$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,387.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 23c | 1,620$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.6 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 56c | 1,600$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.9 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed No | 31c | 1,575$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.14 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…811abacked No | 63c | 1,505$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63af…3de0backed Yes | 30c | 1,498$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.32 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 64c | 1,305$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.93 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed Yes | 60c | 1,274$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 73c | 1,271$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.37 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9d…4cc1backed No | 57c | 1,201$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.81 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 50c | 1,192$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.42 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +10.2wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 78c | 1,141$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.33 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,141$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed No | 22c | 1,110$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.25 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked No | 58c | 1,097$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.04 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked Yes | 1c | 1,081$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a3…5532backed Yes | 76c | 1,038$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…bb35backed No | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 37c | 993.81$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.54 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb1…0ffdbacked No | 25c | 970.29$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.44 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 46c | 905.15$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.17 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Yes | 42c | 899.98$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.99 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e86…d223backed No | 25c | 806.49$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd189…06f4backed Yes | 9c | 800$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed No | 42c | 765.99$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.94 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked No | 66c | 753.06$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.06 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 63c | 734.13$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.5 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 50c | 720.3$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.62 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes | 60c | 720.27$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.28 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed Yes | 74c | 675.27$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.39 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8536…a2cfbacked Yes | 5c | 611.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…73a1backed Yes | 79c | 610.08$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.76 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 14c | 588.41$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.26 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 587.36$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.04 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e5…38aabacked Yes | 74c | 584.75$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked No | 13c | 562.49$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.89 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 40c | 519.88$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.29 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed No | 72c | 499.99$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x218f…7ef2backed No | 21c | 499.98$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.48 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 22c | 452$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.11 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 37c | 424.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.47 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9f…e8c9backed No | 50c | 423.6$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.6 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +98%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…da4fbacked Yes | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 57c | 400$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.9 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 36c | 396.42$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.57 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…cd12backed No | 79c | 381.75$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -79%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 53c | 351.9$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.71 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked No | 22c | 318.59$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.59 | 110 | 31.8%35 W · 75 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 305.73$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.1 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 55c | 303$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.35 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 30c | 300.09$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.09 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 34c | 300$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.75 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked Yes | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.67 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 38cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…0213backed No | 46c | 300$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf789…c4ccbacked Yes | 26c | 273.15$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 33cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 46c | 250.18$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.57 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 49c | 244.78$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.98 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 77c | 236.38$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.7 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed Yes | 52c | 230.3$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe006…7ee1backed Yes | 79c | 227.93$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.59 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 43c | 222$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.54 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 74c | 222$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.95 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecbb…972dbacked No | 45c | 220.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 53c | 217.83$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.82 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef5…8898backed Yes | 53c | 212.77$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.77 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked No | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c4…4ee2backed No | 53c | 206.38$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 50c | 204.28$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.14 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.