TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump trade deal in April?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$496,627
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$581,234

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $496,627 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 182 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbb8e…b243backed No26c30,230$7,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,388.943652.8%19 W · 17 L+5.4wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+29.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25626.5%4 W · 58 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-60.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb843…1b3fbacked Yes77c24,907$19,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,157.52450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes73c24,349$17,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,834.5712630.2%38 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed No73c20,842$15,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,612.675642.9%24 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e21…b2f5backed No23c17,371$4,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,319.44812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-46.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61d8…9c51backed Yes0c16,071$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.072010%2 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-45.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes10c14,964$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,530.018640.7%35 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf11d…2806backed Yes0c14,172$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes51c14,084$7,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,174.338820.5%18 W · 70 L-7.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-58.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes70c12,492$8,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,757.9918033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfb4…ae30backed Yes45c9,305$4,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,165.481513.3%2 W · 13 L-4.2wins-0.28per pick41cpaid-80.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes76c7,125$5,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,428.418453.6%45 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b9…74cebacked No25c6,403$1,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,802.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa03c…27ecbacked Yes8c5,572$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes67c5,270$3,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,516.654542.2%19 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed No44c4,993$2,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,794.989549.5%47 W · 48 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes77c4,322$3,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,346.318134.6%28 W · 53 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed No22c4,000$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1203754.1%20 W · 17 L+6.1wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+55%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed Yes32c3,600$1,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,156.4810834.3%37 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes75c3,368$2,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,532.722365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2bf3…8c3dbacked Yes78c3,105$2,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,432.942147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+101.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b3f…4b41backed Yes75c3,091$2,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,333.05520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-71.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed No24c3,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2803930.8%12 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-22.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No17c2,801$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,329.6421935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No16c2,397$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,021.7120446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4fc…32ecbacked Yes78c2,321$1,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,816.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No62c2,217$1,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.9315332.7%50 W · 103 L-0.6wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes76c2,179$1,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,648.23548.6%17 W · 18 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+36.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes76c2,052$1,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,561.3814940.9%61 W · 88 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed No13c1,790$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,550.143112.9%4 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick8cpaid+96.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes40c1,756$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.045442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid+6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef8f…8660backed No15c1,634$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,387.74333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+121.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked No23c1,620$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,253.65442.6%23 W · 31 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes56c1,600$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.918445.1%83 W · 101 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed No31c1,575$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.1410630.2%32 W · 74 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+57.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9840…811abacked No63c1,505$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.45333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-47.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63af…3de0backed Yes30c1,498$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.3260%0 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No64c1,305$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.9369634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa6df…baa2backed Yes60c1,274$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7613138.7%12 W · 19 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-30.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes73c1,271$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931.377441.9%31 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc9d…4cc1backed No57c1,201$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.812065%13 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc178…35b3backed No50c1,192$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.423966.7%26 W · 13 L+10.2wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+133.6%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No78c1,141$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.338058.8%47 W · 33 L+9.0wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+24.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes5c1,141$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1222641.6%94 W · 132 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed No22c1,110$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.256442.2%27 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xadf4…ce9dbacked No58c1,097$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.043030%9 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcca…aebabacked Yes1c1,081$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.68147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-76.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a3…5532backed Yes76c1,038$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.23850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4f0…bb35backed No12c1,000$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes37c993.81$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.5499629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaeb1…0ffdbacked No25c970.29$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.442343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No46c905.15$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.1719435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed Yes42c899.98$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.996256.5%35 W · 27 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+34.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e86…d223backed No25c806.49$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.49475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+65.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd189…06f4backed Yes9c800$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a6d…60c8backed No42c765.99$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.944940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+30.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…ea5abacked No66c753.06$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.062185.7%18 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+28.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes63c734.13$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.523639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes50c720.3$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.6215032.7%49 W · 101 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes60c720.27$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.288450%42 W · 42 L-9.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdf93…bdc8backed Yes74c675.27$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.393148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-25.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8536…a2cfbacked Yes5c611.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-61.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64d7…73a1backed Yes79c610.08$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.764953.1%26 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes14c588.41$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2637844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No60c587.36$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.0456733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf6e5…38aabacked Yes74c584.75$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.8740%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b69…0cdebacked No13c562.49$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.896041.7%25 W · 35 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes40c519.88$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.2939522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed No72c499.99$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1388843.2%38 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x218f…7ef2backed No21c499.98$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.482254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No22c452$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.1111121.6%24 W · 87 L+11.4wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+179.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No37c424.99$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.4713138.9%51 W · 80 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c9f…e8c9backed No50c423.6$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.61464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+98%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x23be…da4fbacked Yes48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick29cpaid-2.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd66c…97e3backed Yes57c400$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.95726.3%15 W · 42 L+5.0wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+34.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No36c396.42$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.5714125.5%36 W · 105 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe216…cd12backed No79c381.75$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.66616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-79%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes53c351.9$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.7196319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked No22c318.59$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.5911031.8%35 W · 75 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No64c305.73$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.11,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked No55c303$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.355349.1%26 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No30c300.09$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.096955.1%38 W · 31 L+7.4wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+8.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes34c300$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.755440.7%22 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5113…f0babacked Yes58c300$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.671618.8%3 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.19per pick38cpaid-61.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9ef0…0213backed No46c300$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.52250%11 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf789…c4ccbacked Yes26c273.15$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70147.1%1 W · 13 L-3.6wins-0.26per pick33cpaid-90.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes46c250.18$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.5719328.5%55 W · 138 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked No49c244.78$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.986229%18 W · 44 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes77c236.38$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.715124.5%37 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfea2…b797backed Yes52c230.3$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204858.3%28 W · 20 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe006…7ee1backed Yes79c227.93$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.591952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccf3…8f27backed No43c222$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.546131.1%19 W · 42 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes74c222$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.9523149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecbb…972dbacked No45c220.54$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.543100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+81%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed Yes53c217.83$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.828433.3%28 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ef5…8898backed Yes53c212.77$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.771127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-51.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c7b…d06fbacked No47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.778030%24 W · 56 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2c4…4ee2backed No53c206.38$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.38475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked No50c204.28$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.147133.8%24 W · 47 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.