Movies · resolved market
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross between $370-385m by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x113ba95f5a283b39158589c5b9e0d4b0a53d91df569df46c5525432735d44656
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $201,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $200,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $201,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x964e…a040backed Yes | 21c | 47,411$9,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,454.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…7aabbacked No | 79c | 47,411$37,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,454.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe072…125dbacked No | 67c | 28,211$18,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,901.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…b335backed Yes | 33c | 28,211$9,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,901.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 0c | 10,100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…2e06backed Yes | 27c | 5,453$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,953.86 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 75c | 5,248$3,919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,919.34 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes | 27c | 2,438$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,784.55 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed No | 11c | 1,346$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.76 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 26c | 1,078$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.44 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 29c | 737.67$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.81 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 26c | 698.86$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.7 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 69c | 619.99$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.85 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 33c | 605.73$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.3 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 80c | 532.31$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.9 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 15c | 528$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.27 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 15c | 528$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.27 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcc…5b93backed Yes | 27c | 508.37$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.94 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 31c | 500$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…8bc9backed No | 28c | 340$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed No | 23c | 333.52$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.15 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a3…5532backed Yes | 55c | 329.69$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 42c | 321.66$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.26 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac3…ef53backed No | 73c | 320.41$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.03 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 289.5$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.3 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed Yes | 35c | 284.03$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.28 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed No | 23c | 281$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.23 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 74c | 272.82$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.45 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 32c | 250$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b0…f9a8backed No | 34c | 201.36$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7b76backed Yes | 77c | 198.1$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Yes | 26c | 171.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a10…8b30backed Yes | 58c | 169.43$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 43c | 146.69$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0978…00e6backed Yes | 80c | 146.36$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 51c | 139.43$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7434…e58bbacked Yes | 76c | 136.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe803…c90bbacked No | 68c | 135$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 30c | 130$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.25 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6206…d9a2backed No | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 41c | 120$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.68 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 41c | 116.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 32c | 115.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 80c | 114.75$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 65c | 111.29$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.44 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes | 73c | 109.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 23c | 104.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac61…f5f7backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca98…7540backed No | 11c | 92.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…6110backed Yes | 24c | 81.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cde…67d0backed Yes | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b66…002bbacked No | 65c | 70$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e06…a499backed Yes | 28c | 69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b4…2294backed Yes | 76c | 65.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…545dbacked Yes | 64c | 64.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 45c | 60.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c91…4991backed Yes | 44c | 56.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 73c | 50.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…ff39backed Yes | 36c | 41.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 32c | 41.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed Yes | 80c | 37.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…55bfbacked Yes | 30c | 36.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e2…5532backed Yes | 36c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 79c | 32.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…2e22backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…cee6backed Yes | 59c | 19.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba1c…140cbacked No | 58c | 18.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 72c | 17.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross between $370-385m by April 30?this page
- Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross between $385-400m by April 30?No won
- Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross between $400-415m by April 30?No won
- Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross less than $370m by April 30?No won
- Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross more than $415m by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.