Movies · resolved market
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross between $385-400m by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21d991b8c1b4f379a4ff30c7c485e6daf55e2b3d886a41418a5ceed1f1fca1d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 10,289$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 18c | 3,579$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.72 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe98…0befbacked Yes | 0c | 3,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…2e06backed No | 61c | 3,471$2,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350.57 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 38c | 3,226$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.32 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b4…4996backed Yes | 1c | 2,730$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 7c | 2,366$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.16 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…3843backed Yes | 35c | 2,293$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…838bbacked Yes | 13c | 2,133$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.78 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x720d…734dbacked Yes | 22c | 2,036$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…3c37backed Yes | 9c | 2,007$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.01 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 49c | 1,348$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.94 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,081$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.27 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3208…a552backed Yes | 8c | 1,031$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…e91ebacked Yes | 32c | 1,026$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 9c | 894.19$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.15 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 45c | 783.9$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.61 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b87…12c7backed Yes | 4c | 725.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…f846backed Yes | 45c | 722.42$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 36c | 653.81$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.47 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 605.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 22c | 600$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.8 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Yes | 8c | 571$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ec…f99ebacked Yes | 60c | 501.34$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed No | 60c | 482.79$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.45 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 34c | 461.61$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.95 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 53c | 410$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.48 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcee8…57b4backed Yes | 4c | 341.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 338.03$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.57 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed No | 66c | 329.94$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.28 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1f…aa60backed Yes | 33c | 301.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes | 39c | 282.77$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2d…8f7bbacked Yes | 7c | 276.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0978…00e6backed Yes | 67c | 260$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.48 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d85…be2ebacked Yes | 5c | 247.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 61c | 221.28$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.46 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 25c | 208.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3683…68dbbacked Yes | 54c | 195.19$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cde…67d0backed Yes | 40c | 194.36$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 66c | 151.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5303…d66ebacked Yes | 10c | 146.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 28c | 144$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 31c | 128.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 126.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e5…38aabacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62bd…185abacked Yes | 37c | 118.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…6110backed Yes | 28c | 115.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 53c | 108.96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed Yes | 60c | 107$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 11c | 104.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25ff…d6d2backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…d34ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +5.0wins | +0.31per pick | 31cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6e72…57d4backed Yes | 28c | 93.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca98…7540backed Yes | 11c | 92.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5326…f3efbacked Yes | 56c | 88.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 31c | 84.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…ff39backed Yes | 29c | 82.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e4…3848backed Yes | 29c | 79.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a5…9b53backed Yes | 28c | 74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…545dbacked Yes | 18c | 73.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 32c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…05e6backed Yes | 35c | 61.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6206…d9a2backed Yes | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 32c | 59.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 59c | 57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7434…e58bbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 62c | 49.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…a536backed Yes | 42c | 47.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x870e…56bbbacked Yes | 55c | 43.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c91…4991backed Yes | 58c | 34.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 54c | 30.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe803…c90bbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 69c | 29.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb469…23c6backed Yes | 39c | 28.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6c…3b98backed No | 63c | 22.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross between $385-400m by April 30?this page
- Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross between $370-385m by April 30?Yes won
- Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross between $400-415m by April 30?No won
- Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross less than $370m by April 30?No won
- Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross more than $415m by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.