Movies · resolved market
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross between $400-415m by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20624d3a2838dd7afb60e44e5c842092a97e4ad4810df8f7c84b94b935593b45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe85e…2aebbacked Yes | 2c | 16,501$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed Yes | 0c | 7,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 5,852$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,018$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…21c7backed Yes | 1c | 3,134$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…838bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,243$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 7c | 990.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.76 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 23c | 987.03$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.41 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 1c | 892.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 6c | 793.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…2e06backed Yes | 17c | 739.29$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.93 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62bd…185abacked Yes | 2c | 610$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde80…81a4backed Yes | 12c | 570.19$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 4c | 539.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 18c | 500.77$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.63 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 19c | 500$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 25c | 499.98$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 402.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 6c | 322.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3683…68dbbacked Yes | 30c | 301.13$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 283.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 275.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c4…45a1backed Yes | 6c | 267.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6a…4846backed No | 79c | 198.69$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…6110backed Yes | 8c | 189.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 175.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Yes | 17c | 171$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 18c | 138.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e72…57d4backed Yes | 9c | 130.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 77c | 130.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 10c | 122.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf134…2322backed Yes | 19c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +384.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ff…d6d2backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 74c | 93.92$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 28c | 81.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…3797backed Yes | 18c | 59.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 18c | 55.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe803…c90bbacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c91…4991backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross between $400-415m by April 30?this page
- Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross between $370-385m by April 30?Yes won
- Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross between $385-400m by April 30?No won
- Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross less than $370m by April 30?No won
- Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross more than $415m by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.