TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Nuggets (To Advance)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Nuggets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,991,647
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,936,582

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,991,647 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 287 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc5f4…bc4fbacked Nuggets12c679,414$82,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82,750.891526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-62.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Thunder71c179,621$128,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,571.5214052.1%73 W · 67 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Thunder77c141,278$108,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,728.5620248%97 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae36…8fb5backed Nuggets33c127,205$41,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,799.2310357.3%59 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x93fc…34b6backed Nuggets20c89,456$17,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,814.984025%10 W · 30 L-5.2wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-47.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Nuggets11c57,000$6,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,27010926.6%29 W · 80 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-26.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6790…5e06backed Nuggets24c49,398$11,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,750.157335.6%26 W · 47 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Thunder79c47,280$37,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,937.513560.7%82 W · 53 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Nuggets30c38,124$11,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,466.661,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Thunder75c30,589$22,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,640.4128241.1%116 W · 166 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Nuggets24c30,014$7,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,203.4246426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Nuggets14c25,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50019149.7%95 W · 96 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe47c…3afabacked Nuggets16c21,786$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,40023342.9%100 W · 133 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x03cb…4bf9backed Nuggets25c21,426$5,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,388.9826640.2%107 W · 159 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed Nuggets12c20,600$2,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4482441.7%10 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick32cpaid-7.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x73cb…b0d0backed Thunder37c19,635$7,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,367.467647.4%36 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Nuggets21c18,873$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,899.5413133.6%44 W · 87 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ef5…8898backed Thunder66c12,622$8,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,291.473852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f8…b76fbacked Thunder79c12,253$9,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,537.282860.7%17 W · 11 L+4.3wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+41%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Nuggets18c11,291$2,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,003.311,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9db3…0d97backed Nuggets27c11,111$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Nuggets19c10,370$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00047542.3%201 W · 274 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcc9…4534backed Nuggets24c10,157$2,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,396.278167.9%55 W · 26 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef5c…ae33backed Nuggets12c10,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2005628.6%16 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+104.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Thunder73c10,000$7,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,699.9959653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Nuggets17c8,464$1,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,438.848350.6%42 W · 41 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Nuggets15c6,941$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,041.1436843.8%161 W · 207 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc82e…9460backed Nuggets21c6,735$1,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,429.2717044.1%75 W · 95 L-0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8aa…ae12backed Nuggets15c6,254$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.227829.5%23 W · 55 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Nuggets20c5,443$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,082.869747.4%46 W · 51 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b42…ae6ebacked Thunder74c5,419$4,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,412.7113636.8%50 W · 86 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Thunder79c5,000$3,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0503658.3%21 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed Nuggets27c5,000$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3502532%8 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Nuggets26c5,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300100%0 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc49e…3ce0backed Nuggets18c4,983$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.981020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-44.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd602…0105backed Nuggets26c4,615$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20060%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc458…52c7backed Nuggets26c4,271$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,110.43616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick37cpaid-65.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6dd…c9efbacked Nuggets26c4,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0292…4211backed Nuggets9c3,696$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.641361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc06d…485bbacked Nuggets13c3,542$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x50dc…ed37backed Thunder75c3,401$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850.141546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed Nuggets26c3,343$883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.05560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Nuggets19c3,283$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.21,11341.6%463 W · 650 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Thunder74c3,000$2,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.9911741.9%49 W · 68 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb71…8756backed Nuggets34c2,941$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+58.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb5f…0848backed Nuggets17c2,520$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.582512%3 W · 22 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-55.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b29…8373backed Nuggets17c2,513$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.215646.4%26 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+50.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad25…7678backed Thunder73c2,294$1,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.439038.9%35 W · 55 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a50…7f3abacked Nuggets24c2,288$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.68714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-74.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Nuggets27c2,222$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60025536.9%94 W · 161 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cce…6e85backed Nuggets14c2,200$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30622039.1%86 W · 134 L+14.0wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xee03…3eeabacked Thunder69c2,196$1,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.024854.2%26 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Thunder74c2,100$1,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5464531.1%14 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+1.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f3…4bcebacked Nuggets28c2,051$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.32326.1%6 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-35%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe9f7…00f9backed Nuggets25c2,036$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.984022.5%9 W · 31 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick29cpaid+8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d4…ad20backed Nuggets12c2,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2406448.4%31 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Nuggets1c1,956$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.52984.1%4 W · 94 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-61.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeadc…7db5backed Nuggets18c1,798$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.852334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+144.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Nuggets26c1,795$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.627251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x26e9…4a51backed Nuggets28c1,786$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Nuggets5c1,696$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.211,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Nuggets23c1,645$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.872,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51c7…17e4backed Nuggets12c1,624$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.93714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick22cpaid+25.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x295a…60bebacked Nuggets26c1,520$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40050%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Thunder70c1,517$1,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.4322243.7%97 W · 125 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c81…3b0cbacked Nuggets44c1,403$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.83728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Nuggets27c1,400$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3785942.4%25 W · 34 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid0%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bd3…2a3cbacked Nuggets15c1,356$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.48714.9%13 W · 74 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Nuggets17c1,296$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.537734%128 W · 249 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x160d…5295backed Nuggets28c1,268$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.168345.8%38 W · 45 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd55c…34febacked Nuggets14c1,260$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.3733348.9%163 W · 170 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Nuggets8c1,196$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.757550.3%289 W · 286 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed Nuggets32c1,192$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.822714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-70.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Nuggets24c1,122$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.589543.2%41 W · 54 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaea6…674dbacked Nuggets18c1,108$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001625%4 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0ad1…5d7cbacked Nuggets27c1,085$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked Nuggets28c1,008$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.431145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Nuggets19c1,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19017335.8%62 W · 111 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2942…59abbacked Nuggets21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21018044.4%80 W · 100 L+15.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+36.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf8b5…a5cabacked Nuggets15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde97…e43ebacked Nuggets34c1,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3405843.1%25 W · 33 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe468…926ebacked Thunder74c1,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xab26…0c0cbacked Nuggets34c1,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34030619.9%61 W · 245 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Thunder78c1,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2208840.9%36 W · 52 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d4a…2215backed Nuggets26c999.99$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26019838.9%77 W · 121 L-13.2wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Thunder74c999.98$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26076249.5%377 W · 385 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78a5…50b7backed Nuggets34c988.21$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.993043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa072…5353backed Nuggets31c986.56$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-54.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Nuggets18c951.58$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.667929.1%23 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Nuggets26c865.38$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2258823.9%21 W · 67 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c20…2256backed Nuggets18c833.33$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502147.6%10 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick61cpaid-26.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Nuggets21c814.9$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.744740.7%182 W · 265 L-27.5wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked Nuggets26c799.99$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20814129.1%41 W · 100 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+5.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9f04…033cbacked Nuggets26c785.18$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc398…f446backed Nuggets26c769.23$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010246.1%47 W · 55 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x771a…5dd9backed Thunder68c765.6$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed Thunder77c760$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.619047.4%90 W · 100 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9340…cce9backed Nuggets27c701.19$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.3230%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Nuggets29c700$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20661740.7%251 W · 366 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x348a…9dd0backed Nuggets27c700$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-62.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.