Music · resolved market
GELO’s ‘Can You Please' on Billboard Hot 100 this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd2716cc7d240f53b5bbce360252e4d3ac2413b16fbadd92e5763a5eca495414
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2487…6530backed Yes | 34c | 2,941$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d5…d0d7backed No | 66c | 2,941$1,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd591…7156backed Yes | 13c | 930$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…d89ebacked Yes | 13c | 855$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ef…328bbacked Yes | 38c | 627.7$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x360c…38f8backed No | 62c | 627.7$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked No | 55c | 440.47$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 35c | 395.96$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.56 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6306…53ffbacked Yes | 13c | 395$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…d87fbacked Yes | 13c | 350$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…cf1fbacked Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 35c | 166$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -64%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa712…c667backed Yes | 13c | 145$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…5d73backed Yes | 13c | 135$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…d02cbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 61c | 93.64$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…bf01backed No | 75c | 78.01$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde6b…bd36backed No | 75c | 69.33$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 24c | 66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 22cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 57c | 63.51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 56c | 53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 47c | 27.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…a72bbacked Yes | 64c | 21.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.