World Politics · resolved market
Will Saeed Jalili be the next President of Iran?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa2b2ed16e5e09e355cb9c023b08ebe35671531d5007c3d66e75d0fec5f639a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39a3…0551backed Yes | 28c | 13,699$3,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,865.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes | 35c | 5,978$2,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,116.65 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…a8b7backed No | 77c | 2,388$1,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 55cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e90…bdeebacked Yes | 62c | 2,160$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a9…94b3backed No | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253f…edf9backed No | 49c | 1,954$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91c3…f487backed No | 42c | 1,696$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d0…22e3backed Yes | 5c | 1,107$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ec…ba7bbacked Yes | 27c | 1,099$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 2c | 1,055$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…c705backed Yes | 28c | 537.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +106%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc0…6cfdbacked No | 12c | 520.97$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.58per pick | 9cpaid | +453.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 39c | 435.33$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…9a24backed Yes | 70c | 429.18$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…013ebacked Yes | 57c | 374.99$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.23 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 38cpaid | +441.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ec…625bbacked No | 56c | 342.23$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10cc…154fbacked No | 36c | 271.77$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +144.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 27c | 252.21$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.24 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Yes | 36c | 250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecee…f2b1backed No | 49c | 246$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 68c | 222$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.29 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d1…2562backed No | 67c | 217.19$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…692bbacked No | 73c | 212.33$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…a72bbacked Yes | 47c | 208.48$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.27 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…8ae2backed No | 60c | 207.94$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5b…0872backed Yes | 42c | 172.49$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…eb52backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9071…d730backed No | 53c | 140.36$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…ceffbacked No | 49c | 132.69$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27d0…8fecbacked No | 47c | 115.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +139.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 58c | 102.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x464c…6844backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacd0…2804backed Yes | 15c | 95.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed No | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa1…8ba9backed Yes | 63c | 75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…1f37backed Yes | 70c | 70.76$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…eb1abacked Yes | 64c | 65.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 27c | 61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…06bbbacked No | 36c | 55.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +137.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3c…4325backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…68ddbacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e73…a236backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad5…03a1backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…cd2ebacked Yes | 35c | 42.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f2…1807backed No | 39c | 39.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +140.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 60c | 36.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c25…6d22backed Yes | 70c | 21.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Saeed Jalili be the next President of Iran?this page
- Will Ali Larijani be the next President of Iran?No won
- Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf be the next President of Iran?No won
- Will Mohammad Mokhber be the next President of Iran?No won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next President of Iran?No won
- Will another person be the next President of Iran?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.