World Politics · resolved market
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf be the next President of Iran?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f5e759558938dea7d5c950bb02e6af1299a0794c7dce6fa80590e99a6211253
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7103…f7d0backed Yes | 44c | 2,639$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 28c | 1,381$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.1 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d2…5746backed Yes | 1c | 1,117$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dff…73c1backed Yes | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21dc…3c76backed Yes | 27c | 370.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110f…bbdbbacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…a8b7backed Yes | 32c | 201.84$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 55cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Yes | 39c | 200.05$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71e0…3b51backed Yes | 16c | 192.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e9…9bb6backed Yes | 49c | 151.25$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a1…8d1cbacked Yes | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…7b73backed No | 58c | 132.76$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…c705backed Yes | 40c | 123.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +106%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c3…d1a8backed Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a08…2523backed No | 54c | 118.97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6215…a54dbacked No | 57c | 89.19$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…ea76backed No | 55c | 89.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +129.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3419…499bbacked Yes | 50c | 78.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e51…bef7backed Yes | 30c | 75.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…7280backed Yes | 49c | 71.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eae…7474backed No | 57c | 70.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…e29fbacked Yes | 44c | 69.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 51c | 64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 55c | 63.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…6a12backed Yes | 46c | 43.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78a…0edebacked Yes | 47c | 42.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3354…a31abacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8439…432abacked Yes | 49c | 40.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ed…7c01backed Yes | 49c | 40.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x648a…94cbbacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x289a…1909backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf78…7723backed Yes | 49c | 22.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf be the next President of Iran?this page
- Will Ali Larijani be the next President of Iran?No won
- Will Mohammad Mokhber be the next President of Iran?No won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next President of Iran?No won
- Will Saeed Jalili be the next President of Iran?No won
- Will another person be the next President of Iran?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.