Fifa International · resolved market
Will Israel beat Belgium?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dc8a1495fa1fa3128a9edb428173c1f0f97c65be2d1acfddca89738db2d777f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,316$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.49 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe53e…2cadbacked No | 73c | 727.68$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 25c | 542.51$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.97 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…32d0backed Yes | 14c | 428.24$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.65 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 390.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.84 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed Yes | 14c | 375.74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.14 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…3390backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa90b…0789backed Yes | 18c | 279.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +317.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…a72bbacked Yes | 22c | 255.57$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99eb…0464backed Yes | 16c | 193$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +261.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…5f3ebacked Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.43 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8e…0a87backed Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.43 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 16c | 95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 145 | 26.2%38 W · 107 L | -11.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel beat Belgium?this page
- Will Belgium beat Israel?No won
- Will the match between Israel and Belgium end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.