Fifa International · resolved market
Will Belgium beat Israel?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3de39c8fd94a94f271d73e660c1da26bbd005ab3b132a5886ae36f402f16fe9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 63c | 8,151$5,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,171.09 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 35c | 5,906$2,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,832.36 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…32d0backed No | 35c | 5,291$1,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,461.38 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed No | 44c | 1,652$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.11 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed No | 33c | 1,500$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +129.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x519f…2af7backed Yes | 67c | 1,493$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 57c | 1,035$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.3 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 102 | 63.7%65 W · 37 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6a…4873backed Yes | 40c | 994.17$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 35c | 594.3$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.3 | 218 | 36.2%79 W · 139 L | -19.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed No | 37c | 500$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…74a7backed Yes | 66c | 500$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x285f…fb2bbacked Yes | 64c | 476.44$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b4…b423backed Yes | 65c | 459.08$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…5696backed Yes | 65c | 435$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4517backed No | 35c | 434.99$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78fa…dcc7backed Yes | 70c | 405.47$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 63c | 368.03$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.86 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Yes | 66c | 360.76$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 30c | 340.04$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.82 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe95b…9d2fbacked Yes | 58c | 312$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a06…d20ebacked Yes | 66c | 294.08$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ef…3abdbacked Yes | 51c | 292.38$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabea…730bbacked Yes | 65c | 282.77$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…87f9backed Yes | 57c | 279.91$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 41c | 250$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…cdaabacked Yes | 63c | 250$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 60cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 55c | 238.38$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.96 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a09…4a9ebacked Yes | 60c | 236.62$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.97 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked No | 34c | 230.61$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.2 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d1…d61ebacked Yes | 68c | 220.59$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 48c | 218.29$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.04 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9937…6202backed Yes | 63c | 200$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…72d7backed Yes | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Yes | 66c | 163.64$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…794bbacked Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8e…0a87backed Yes | 66c | 151.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 69c | 150$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60af…0ee9backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1d…8dd5backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…d498backed Yes | 67c | 141.63$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11c7…850cbacked Yes | 35c | 120.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2399…2332backed Yes | 65c | 103.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.83 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…75aabacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a5…729bbacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ced…49c4backed Yes | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 29c | 80.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.02 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f2…a3e2backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…eb16backed Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f2…502ebacked Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb10a…140ebacked Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de1…312bbacked Yes | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 66c | 55.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 31c | 53.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe897…dd43backed Yes | 71c | 50.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 31c | 44.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 168 | 35.1%59 W · 109 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe43c…e595backed Yes | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…1a5cbacked Yes | 63c | 40.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a60…0f21backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…4cd5backed Yes | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb62…7e90backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…6384backed Yes | 68c | 30.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f45…7335backed Yes | 67c | 27.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab5b…9b70backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0a…5411backed Yes | 66c | 24.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…0be7backed Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…7537backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f6…be9ebacked Yes | 67c | 19.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb94…94d5backed Yes | 71c | 19.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3383…c0b8backed Yes | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f0…d070backed Yes | 66c | 18.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Belgium beat Israel?this page
- Will Israel beat Belgium?Yes won
- Will the match between Israel and Belgium end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.