Olympics · resolved market
Olympic Basketball: Australia vs. Serbia
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x586f52b941dd9b37151bd73f1c914206d274577d542777c8f5f3593bd8d574c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Serbiaof Australia, Serbia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked Serbia | 58c | 8,359$4,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,475.13 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…67e2backed Australia | 51c | 6,063$3,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,063.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Serbia | 8c | 4,782$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,380.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6691…17cfbacked Australia | 7c | 2,686$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.03 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…1708backed Serbia | 4c | 2,185$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,097.99 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Australia | 27c | 1,197$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.31 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Australia | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e72…3e8dbacked Australia | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c8…3e97backed Serbia | 11c | 829.08$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.93 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 15cpaid | +215.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8371…06febacked Serbia | 29c | 803.85$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.51 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25c0…cfc7backed Serbia | 30c | 700$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe946…4cc4backed Serbia | 73c | 682.19$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…d3c6backed Australia | 28c | 642.86$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf2…b7bcbacked Australia | 35c | 599.64$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Serbia | 73c | 534.16$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Serbia | 20c | 446.48$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.05 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd430…d683backed Australia | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf804…7747backed Australia | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…4bfbbacked Serbia | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Australia | 14c | 399.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…64abbacked Australia | 19c | 379.64$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68f2…006dbacked Australia | 67c | 338.53$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…a72bbacked Serbia | 59c | 270.89$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.17 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x222a…62f7backed Serbia | 46c | 267.39$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd76…05febacked Australia | 11c | 219.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Australia | 77c | 211.5$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf842…682dbacked Serbia | 39c | 166.47$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…f74dbacked Australia | 54c | 160.17$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Australia | 17c | 143.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Australia | 27c | 128.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2c…2f5dbacked Serbia | 73c | 103.7$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Australia | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Serbia | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Serbia | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Australia | 29c | 96.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba3f…8b64backed Serbia | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Serbia | 34c | 64.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3296…f12ebacked Australia | 39c | 54.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Australia | 21c | 50.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Australia | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…de46backed Australia | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -54%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc751…990ebacked Serbia | 73c | 47.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b25…861ebacked Serbia | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1405…d432backed Australia | 47c | 40.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c5…6f71backed Australia | 57c | 37.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3632…2c12backed Serbia | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c91…b5ccbacked Serbia | 65c | 33.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0496…d6d7backed Serbia | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x676e…8aa7backed Australia | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Serbia | 70c | 16.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +7.3wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb849…fda3backed Serbia | 72c | 13.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.