Middle East · resolved market
Israel strike on Yemen by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47b745a96e97c4e89e2bcf10db148089e06f25db96155894be8a61aed3fe0526
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 2c | 3,907$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.99 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 2,402$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.86 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc9…1ec7backed Yes | 9c | 2,150$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.36 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 6c | 1,658$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.96 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea98…8626backed Yes | 9c | 1,042$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.09 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 939.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 16c | 889.14$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.9 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…a72bbacked Yes | 16c | 686.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.92 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…aa35backed Yes | 9c | 641.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 614.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…f74dbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd103…dc4fbacked Yes | 10c | 497.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 9c | 496.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 16c | 482$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.04 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…316fbacked Yes | 7c | 458.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e9…cb9cbacked Yes | 3c | 455.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 17c | 448.11$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.25 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…f0e7backed Yes | 8c | 443.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 6c | 369.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…bac4backed Yes | 7c | 359.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 324.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 22c | 324.91$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 66c | 304.21$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.21 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0404…8353backed Yes | 5c | 231.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Yes | 26c | 219.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.22 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed Yes | 9c | 219$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5125…601abacked Yes | 7c | 206.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc4…c6b9backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes | 7c | 145$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…0d18backed Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 14c | 116.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed Yes | 23c | 106.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +7.5wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 106$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75c2…8fc1backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304c…7a74backed Yes | 56c | 99.64$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked No | 44c | 82.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.37 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4688…9b89backed Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d42…8fbbbacked No | 63c | 78.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 22c | 59.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50ce…321cbacked Yes | 39c | 43.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x031c…4fcabacked No | 77c | 34.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed No | 63c | 31.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb2…deddbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.