Olympics · resolved market
Olympic Basketball: USA (-27.5) vs. Brazil Spread
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a8e8cfc3339930065b180e0bfcff687207e181f683549fe1c8050ae52fbd3e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- USAof USA, Brazil
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf4c8…3e97backed Brazil | 5c | 16,665$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 15cpaid | +215.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8371…06febacked Brazil | 23c | 7,097$1,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,632.67 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Brazil | 32c | 5,500$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed USA | 47c | 4,514$2,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,389.31 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd71…d127backed Brazil | 38c | 3,964$1,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,497.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c58…01aebacked USA | 71c | 3,920$2,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -53%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eab…5692backed Brazil | 57c | 3,490$1,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,974.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed USA | 43c | 3,106$1,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,774.68 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed USA | 68c | 2,862$1,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…64abbacked Brazil | 53c | 2,500$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…197cbacked Brazil | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.08 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed USA | 60c | 1,851$1,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.34 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Brazil | 9c | 1,417$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.3 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd0…4e6cbacked USA | 74c | 1,362$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed USA | 46c | 1,315$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.3 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed USA | 74c | 849.98$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.99 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee8d…94b2backed Brazil | 2c | 686.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2855…afffbacked USA | 45c | 666.9$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95bf…562fbacked USA | 49c | 646.27$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee4…3ababacked Brazil | 21c | 600$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Brazil | 45c | 337.75$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.51 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Brazil | 4c | 325.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Brazil | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63b4…94ddbacked USA | 67c | 298.59$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ec…65adbacked USA | 59c | 245$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…67a9backed USA | 60c | 229.11$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…b942backed Brazil | 54c | 228$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.12 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Brazil | 52c | 222.75$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.83 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Brazil | 52c | 220.83$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.83 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…9047backed USA | 44c | 217$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked USA | 50c | 208.82$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.41 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…7ff5backed USA | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf96…efc2backed Brazil | 53c | 207.74$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…0d2abacked Brazil | 26c | 200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed USA | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91f…e659backed Brazil | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +195.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Brazil | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16f2…cfa0backed Brazil | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca9d…07f7backed Brazil | 55c | 183.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -68%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb776…0b62backed USA | 48c | 145.31$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…a72bbacked Brazil | 15c | 141.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Brazil | 55c | 132$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Brazil | 40c | 116.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…b987backed Brazil | 17c | 115$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…3664backed USA | 48c | 104.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0c…33a2backed USA | 79c | 101.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed Brazil | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…ab4cbacked USA | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Brazil | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8229…dfbfbacked Brazil | 28c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed USA | 48c | 99.97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b7…9a3cbacked Brazil | 37c | 96.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc64…fc2bbacked Brazil | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c24…8536backed Brazil | 42c | 93.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Brazil | 52c | 90.39$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf363…45e0backed Brazil | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…bad6backed USA | 70c | 88.71$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9250…23bfbacked Brazil | 52c | 87.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b7…3873backed USA | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x116e…9f0cbacked USA | 57c | 83.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…bc5ebacked USA | 49c | 80.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…20a3backed Brazil | 26c | 73.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Brazil | 52c | 70.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Brazil | 41c | 50.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5574…6424backed USA | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed USA | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…8d6cbacked Brazil | 52c | 48.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed USA | 47c | 46.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0496…d6d7backed USA | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccf…7afbbacked Brazil | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…498dbacked Brazil | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2d…c5c3backed USA | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f5…8c66backed USA | 63c | 31.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf716…82ccbacked USA | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…642abacked Brazil | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3296…f12ebacked Brazil | 54c | 27.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5363…d77dbacked USA | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed Brazil | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.