UFC · resolved market
Topuria vs. Holloway
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb542ea205350e6fa2456ed2ffa49fb8f9cbe795528938e7b0ef0165c85d9fdd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Topuriaof Topuria, Holloway
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $452,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $469,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $452,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 412 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Topuria | 74c | 102,390$75,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,759.84 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb75…0252backed Holloway | 29c | 59,907$17,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,175.01 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2b…27a9backed Topuria | 71c | 57,594$40,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,702.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…44a5backed Holloway | 25c | 25,083$6,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,247.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…77b7backed Holloway | 28c | 24,976$7,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,009.58 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a14…e79fbacked Holloway | 27c | 24,841$6,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,707.46 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed Holloway | 25c | 20,348$5,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,073.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Holloway | 29c | 16,401$4,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,798.99 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdf…6c07backed Topuria | 72c | 15,646$11,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,380.84 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ae…85c4backed Topuria | 73c | 14,603$10,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,893.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Holloway | 25c | 13,043$3,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,262.68 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Holloway | 29c | 12,413$3,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,598.02 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Holloway | 29c | 12,264$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600.46 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…5968backed Holloway | 29c | 10,516$3,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,007.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Holloway | 29c | 10,353$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…9051backed Topuria | 71c | 10,140$7,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,903.48 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Holloway | 29c | 9,615$2,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,788.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8903…63c8backed Holloway | 27c | 8,212$2,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,194.36 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94dc…c779backed Topuria | 72c | 8,028$5,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,238.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17b0…4041backed Topuria | 73c | 7,500$5,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…4a71backed Holloway | 27c | 7,483$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e65…0f1bbacked Topuria | 76c | 7,083$5,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,712.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6434…cdbebacked Holloway | 25c | 6,055$1,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,524.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Holloway | 36c | 5,716$2,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,044.9 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Holloway | 26c | 5,572$1,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,448.64 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Holloway | 29c | 5,445$1,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,602.91 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Holloway | 28c | 4,982$1,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,389.26 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb492…b7edbacked Holloway | 30c | 4,605$1,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,377.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Topuria | 69c | 4,100$2,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,254.99 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 60cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe86a…4e1abacked Holloway | 29c | 3,779$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c66…bb83backed Topuria | 73c | 3,692$2,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Holloway | 28c | 3,333$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.23 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…28a8backed Topuria | 72c | 3,063$2,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.79 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa71c…1676backed Topuria | 72c | 2,932$2,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578c…9661backed Topuria | 72c | 2,778$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.78 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…bac4backed Topuria | 72c | 2,746$1,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506a…0e59backed Holloway | 30c | 2,689$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb550…2bacbacked Holloway | 28c | 2,577$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6339…a0c9backed Topuria | 73c | 2,462$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Holloway | 30c | 2,431$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.57 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc0…021dbacked Topuria | 73c | 2,368$1,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9c…e006backed Topuria | 74c | 2,232$1,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.24 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Holloway | 25c | 2,079$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.84 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Holloway | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed Holloway | 30c | 2,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Holloway | 29c | 2,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…fb70backed Topuria | 60c | 1,809$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb251…23d7backed Holloway | 29c | 1,724$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc82e…0d6abacked Holloway | 31c | 1,645$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9001…d9bebacked Holloway | 32c | 1,563$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd35d…7089backed Topuria | 72c | 1,528$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8931…9c63backed Topuria | 73c | 1,354$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b6…2d92backed Topuria | 76c | 1,316$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.79 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed Topuria | 71c | 1,308$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8685…43ffbacked Topuria | 71c | 1,295$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe657…9e01backed Holloway | 32c | 1,247$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Topuria | 69c | 1,200$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.99 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c3…b24bbacked Topuria | 72c | 1,193$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db1…8e4ebacked Holloway | 30c | 1,172$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa7…d285backed Holloway | 30c | 1,171$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e8…dd3abacked Holloway | 30c | 1,167$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Holloway | 28c | 1,146$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.3 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0688…d67dbacked Topuria | 73c | 1,118$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.99 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Topuria | 64c | 1,094$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.06 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…334bbacked Topuria | 73c | 1,093$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0174…f66fbacked Holloway | 29c | 1,066$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.29 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200a…d498backed Holloway | 27c | 1,050$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Holloway | 42c | 999.99$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0232…9391backed Topuria | 70c | 899.99$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5270…c74cbacked Holloway | 30c | 808.78$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57dc…461bbacked Topuria | 71c | 787.5$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64a…627bbacked Holloway | 30c | 777.06$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fd…a346backed Topuria | 72c | 752.54$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.71 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…9228backed Holloway | 27c | 750$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7997…fc95backed Topuria | 73c | 697.41$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Holloway | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x717a…7476backed Topuria | 73c | 687.31$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.87 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292c…fb29backed Topuria | 71c | 683.73$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…21a2backed Topuria | 71c | 675.99$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Topuria | 72c | 606.39$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04a…824ebacked Holloway | 31c | 590.39$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.62 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1156…f8adbacked Topuria | 71c | 590$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.1 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08d0…751dbacked Holloway | 28c | 589.98$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1923…3b76backed Topuria | 55c | 551.6$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8573…801abacked Holloway | 30c | 518.5$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Topuria | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2d…f0d4backed Topuria | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a2…9a5abacked Holloway | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Holloway | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab74…3996backed Holloway | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7a…f6dbbacked Holloway | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x321a…b052backed Holloway | 25c | 498.72$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9989…30babacked Topuria | 70c | 495.42$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.42 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf950…486dbacked Holloway | 31c | 483.32$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Topuria | 71c | 473.66$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.22 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…ea33backed Holloway | 32c | 468.75$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…ef38backed Topuria | 57c | 450$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…9975backed Holloway | 40c | 437.43$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58d2…46e6backed Holloway | 29c | 413.91$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.03 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Topuria | 70c | 413.83$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.15 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Topuria vs. Hollowaythis page
- Ankalaev vs. RakicAnkalaev won
- Magomedov vs. PetrosyanMagomedov won
- Murphy vs. IgeMurphy won
- Whittaker vs. ChimaevChimaev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.