UFC · resolved market
Murphy vs. Ige
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58da5f3885556afc9ba1029325ee82ad13fbed050856d6974e5e262fb3136ead
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Murphyof Murphy, Ige
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8903…63c8backed Ige | 1c | 7,097$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…9051backed Murphy | 76c | 5,254$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.8 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Ige | 29c | 4,555$1,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300.91 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…7f08backed Ige | 24c | 4,322$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.21 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7001…8b29backed Murphy | 76c | 4,000$3,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Ige | 34c | 3,821$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.81 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…bedbbacked Murphy | 73c | 2,257$1,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.33 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Murphy | 73c | 1,931$1,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.26 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7a…f6dbbacked Murphy | 61c | 1,630$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Ige | 29c | 1,414$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Ige | 36c | 1,406$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.98 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Murphy | 49c | 1,084$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.99 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Ige | 54c | 1,023$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.4 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Murphy | 70c | 700$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Ige | 25c | 682.67$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.67 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x578c…9661backed Murphy | 75c | 666.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Murphy | 49c | 634.22$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.45 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f4…d93ebacked Ige | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Ige | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2483…db2ebacked Murphy | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x717a…7476backed Murphy | 76c | 406.41$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Murphy | 52c | 350$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb251…23d7backed Ige | 32c | 313.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x299a…890abacked Ige | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Ige | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Murphy | 18c | 259.81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.98 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed Ige | 28c | 222.57$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…16c1backed Murphy | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…d04bbacked Murphy | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Murphy | 75c | 182.15$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c66…bb83backed Murphy | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04a…824ebacked Ige | 31c | 149.68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7db1…8e4ebacked Murphy | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2582…39d8backed Murphy | 65c | 142.46$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641f…ab52backed Murphy | 72c | 137.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…8ae8backed Ige | 33c | 121.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Ige | 26c | 111.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…4a03backed Ige | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Ige | 15c | 99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Murphy | 68c | 97$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc82e…0d6abacked Ige | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Ige | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…e452backed Ige | 27c | 76.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x566a…881abacked Ige | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33cc…a0b6backed Murphy | 72c | 71.67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Murphy | 70c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff2…2602backed Ige | 27c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13a6…ee95backed Ige | 49c | 58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3825…1cc5backed Murphy | 76c | 57.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…3a9fbacked Ige | 27c | 56.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe39b…67e6backed Murphy | 74c | 54.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a95…45b6backed Ige | 27c | 50.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…6802backed Murphy | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd7…5863backed Ige | 44c | 45.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Ige | 25c | 44.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce27…67b4backed Murphy | 46c | 43.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f6…1cedbacked Murphy | 68c | 40.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…23dabacked Ige | 28c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a14…e79fbacked Murphy | 74c | 38.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…02acbacked Murphy | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Murphy | 55c | 29.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2910…c2eabacked Murphy | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb19…8117backed Ige | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb57…dd05backed Murphy | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…0d11backed Murphy | 72c | 22.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…f4bebacked Murphy | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…9c6abacked Ige | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08d0…751dbacked Murphy | 69c | 18.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Murphy | 76c | 17.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Murphy vs. Igethis page
- Ankalaev vs. RakicAnkalaev won
- Magomedov vs. PetrosyanMagomedov won
- Topuria vs. HollowayTopuria won
- Whittaker vs. ChimaevChimaev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.