Olympics · resolved market
Will China win the 3rd most medals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04170ebb9b80ddeb7c8adf9e7d6d57c8bf0af3cfec4260455254db034a43d6fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 1c | 11,236$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.86 | 83 | 9.6%8 W · 75 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 6c | 8,180$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.53 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe293…2b51backed Yes | 0c | 4,497$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 6c | 4,159$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 5c | 2,966$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.75 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 5c | 2,703$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.27 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 9c | 1,537$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 1c | 1,331$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes | 5c | 990$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -74%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 4c | 826.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 2c | 763.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…c7f9backed Yes | 2c | 592.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…a72bbacked Yes | 3c | 467.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed Yes | 10c | 116.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will China win the 3rd most medals?this page
- Will Australia win the 3rd most medals?No won
- Will France win the 3rd most medals?No won
- Will Germany win the 3rd most medals?No won
- Will Great Britain win the 3rd most medals?Yes won
- Will Japan win the 3rd most medals?No won
- Will Netherlands win the 3rd most medals?No won
- Will another country win the 3rd most medals?No won
- Will the United States win the 3rd most medals?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.