Olympics · resolved market
Will France win the 3rd most medals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa49aeebeb377a3d0da24a2a16cb2432979482e01e60f8e06ebcb0775e534a6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0501…7f87backed Yes | 0c | 37,834$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb88…0e56backed Yes | 0c | 8,626$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c6…3654backed No | 80c | 3,512$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Yes | 26c | 2,498$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 35c | 1,805$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,177.71 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc26…24d0backed No | 42c | 1,615$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed No | 14c | 1,507$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,301.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +632.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b4…1ab6backed Yes | 71c | 1,418$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 3c | 1,411$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,289$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 51c | 1,128$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.83 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf483…bdcdbacked Yes | 79c | 1,029$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 989.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4457…f3e2backed Yes | 19c | 964.94$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…e5a4backed Yes | 55c | 772.02$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked No | 16c | 761.56$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.49 | 83 | 9.6%8 W · 75 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4806…1076backed Yes | 71c | 604.17$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 19c | 600$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8024…ba91backed Yes | 4c | 595.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xede2…b6b4backed No | 23c | 450.92$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 24c | 413.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf7…a694backed Yes | 72c | 400.24$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…2f89backed Yes | 46c | 375.18$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +70%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b3…0786backed Yes | 70c | 357.14$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad67…a975backed No | 23c | 349.41$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 49c | 315.72$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.22 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed Yes | 6c | 250$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbe…5f66backed No | 49c | 249.99$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed No | 18c | 241.58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.1 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 57cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b9…1921backed Yes | 76c | 239.4$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1960…b36ebacked Yes | 45c | 229.75$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 53c | 200$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…e291backed Yes | 52c | 193.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.37 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…b801backed No | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…51c3backed No | 40c | 170$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…c433backed No | 53c | 155.85$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.39 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc90…6eb4backed Yes | 71c | 141.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7653…42e7backed Yes | 76c | 132.84$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…9387backed Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa95f…0b39backed Yes | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked No | 18c | 111.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.25 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…b942backed No | 21c | 107$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.53 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6a…a012backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1e…f97dbacked Yes | 45c | 81.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed No | 50c | 81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62cc…9d0fbacked Yes | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…1605backed No | 19c | 79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa74b…7483backed Yes | 68c | 73.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb78e…30e3backed Yes | 74c | 65.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…8151backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5395…687abacked Yes | 38c | 55.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…3f87backed Yes | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…4d9dbacked Yes | 39c | 50.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…5425backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…6501backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73aa…d604backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3633…054ebacked Yes | 34c | 43.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf087…40f5backed Yes | 68c | 43.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8075…af14backed Yes | 79c | 38.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5574…6424backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7794…8df9backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa202…4968backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815b…5ef7backed Yes | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffc…3fcebacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91c5…8ddbbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will France win the 3rd most medals?this page
- Will Australia win the 3rd most medals?No won
- Will China win the 3rd most medals?No won
- Will Germany win the 3rd most medals?No won
- Will Great Britain win the 3rd most medals?Yes won
- Will Japan win the 3rd most medals?No won
- Will Netherlands win the 3rd most medals?No won
- Will another country win the 3rd most medals?No won
- Will the United States win the 3rd most medals?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.