TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1960…b36e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
58
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: World Politics, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 60 out of 100; worst Olympics at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT1546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.2
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Nothing Ever Happens: Khameneibacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+147.1%+$29.41
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+173%+$51.89
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+104.6%+$20.92
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15.92
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$46
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+34.2%+$6.85
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+68.6%+$13.72
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+111.8%+$16.77
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2024, EDT+177.8%+$35.56
Will Israel invade Lebanon by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2024, EDT-100%-$93
Iran military response by Tuesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$10
All 15 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick21cpaid+23%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.42
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+498.6%+$312.23
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$159.36
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.33
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.45
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+37%+$36.99
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$16.25
All 10 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+25%+$5
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$5.64
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$12.79
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will the U.S. win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2024, EDT+177.8%+$35.56
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2024, EST60%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2024, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Olympics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 24, 2025, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+835.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.56
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$44
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$16
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT+25.6%+$2.56
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Oct 9, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+364.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT+364.8%+$364.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+290.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+290.6%+$29.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+56.3%+$5.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.