Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel invade Lebanon by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x758970b4b8df960788494dbd980d4a435e98756b58cebe25d34dd29f14a9cae1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed Yes | 7c | 10,000$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.03 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 1c | 4,753$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.51 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ca…0a6ebacked Yes | 2c | 4,444$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1189…a9e0backed Yes | 7c | 4,377$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.91 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -92.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 1c | 4,322$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…3ca9backed Yes | 2c | 3,241$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.78 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 2c | 2,743$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 2c | 2,542$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x361a…f391backed Yes | 4c | 2,525$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 4c | 1,611$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.26 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd2…3b94backed Yes | 8c | 1,569$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x114f…686cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,475$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 5c | 1,263$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.47 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1960…b36ebacked Yes | 9c | 993.41$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f5…9663backed Yes | 10c | 838.87$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.3 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee3…8a71backed Yes | 14c | 811.56$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5e…d2f6backed Yes | 9c | 699.78$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…de71backed Yes | 9c | 633.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x253f…edf9backed Yes | 8c | 620.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ac83backed Yes | 3c | 612.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1463…b1bdbacked Yes | 31c | 532.9$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa3…c526backed Yes | 4c | 448.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 26c | 381.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes | 10c | 361$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 10c | 300.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -87%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0513…2157backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 4c | 269.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ec…ba7bbacked No | 75c | 250$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2855…afffbacked Yes | 9c | 237$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2189…04b7backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 35cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbca5…eccabacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…d321backed Yes | 10c | 170$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…f9e9backed Yes | 16c | 125.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4842…7c89backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1c…5fe8backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.24per pick | 28cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…0d20backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ce…3fc6backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…8d79backed No | 51c | 98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.