TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Olympics · resolved market

Olympic Basketball: USA vs. Serbia

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
USAof USA, Serbia
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$547,112
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$476,689

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $547,112 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 164 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcc50…4c82backed Serbia6c40,200$2,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,534666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+67.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9b4…64edbacked Serbia5c36,976$1,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,824.32520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid+138.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf4…7883backed Serbia17c30,601$5,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,069.53250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Serbia5c25,000$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.98850%4 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+92.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xacf7…a694backed Serbia16c23,587$3,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,879.33616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick40cpaid-55.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5e9…32b8backed Serbia23c18,203$4,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,105.31911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-52.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Serbia17c13,407$2,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,306.473522.9%8 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…87cfbacked Serbia7c12,500$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8458236.6%30 W · 52 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849b…df27backed Serbia7c11,033$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.8850%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe411…04c5backed Serbia5c11,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55070%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f91…907fbacked Serbia20c10,341$2,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,060.854245.2%19 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8371…06febacked Serbia6c10,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002326.1%6 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+85.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Serbia26c10,000$2,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,572.061346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+117.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked USA37c9,398$3,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,929.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa0f…2433backed Serbia43c9,374$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked USA80c9,166$7,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,841.08616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-79.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Serbia29c9,044$2,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,644.2540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a14…0762backed Serbia7c8,848$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.55450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a4c…532bbacked USA78c8,450$6,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,852.54450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-30.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0416…9b31backed Serbia7c7,609$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x105b…08f0backed Serbia37c7,508$2,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,744.641526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Serbia38c6,960$2,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,656.811275%9 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+38.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf2b3…7469backed Serbia33c6,854$2,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,26610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cd9…1095backed Serbia5c6,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001442.9%6 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a12…01cebacked USA66c5,318$3,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,812.512864.3%18 W · 10 L+6.3wins+0.22per pick42cpaid+53.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x3aac…1fd9backed USA71c5,303$3,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,560.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8258…f208backed Serbia5c5,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-35.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5795…4fecbacked Serbia28c4,985$1,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,387.7340%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91c7…28ccbacked Serbia6c4,803$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa357…1045backed Serbia4c4,357$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.250%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8297…1708backed Serbia3c4,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Serbia39c3,816$1,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,475.131127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick47cpaid+63.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x064d…a0e4backed Serbia12c3,771$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x145b…d6bdbacked Serbia7c3,554$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25080%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked Serbia18c2,999$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.632420.8%5 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-59.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5abb…8633backed USA71c2,604$1,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.182100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Serbia46c2,516$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,146.231216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9478…63f5backed Serbia46c2,348$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb5…8b87backed Serbia14c2,326$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.6680%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Serbia33c2,295$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.2940%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e91…ea34backed USA76c2,205$1,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.59366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1fc…0ec1backed Serbia29c2,004$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f56…6cfcbacked Serbia29c2,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1856…1964backed Serbia18c1,950$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.99933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-56.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd44…6565backed Serbia5c1,700$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-56.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c2…0a62backed USA64c1,524$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.52326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Serbia43c1,511$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.71241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35a4…aa10backed Serbia34c1,471$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Serbia15c1,435$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e0c…b4acbacked Serbia59c1,355$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Serbia5c1,328$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3913419.4%26 W · 108 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb984…2a41backed Serbia17c1,190$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.2960%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c46…84debacked Serbia70c1,152$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d96…91f6backed USA77c1,097$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6867…25b8backed USA48c1,025$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.75580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+20.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e72…3e8dbacked Serbia26c1,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-63.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Serbia6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-17.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x807f…bad6backed Serbia16c928.67$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.631241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a3b…ffcebacked Serbia35c911.87$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd31c…b93fbacked USA58c867.54$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.17475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+108.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1dbd…af92backed Serbia9c793.76$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.085133.3%17 W · 34 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3b3…0786backed USA64c786.05$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.051163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick70cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75b1…9ebdbacked Serbia35c739.18$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.38540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d13…c3dcbacked USA69c724.64$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc391…41f7backed Serbia14c715$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c81…1a5cbacked USA54c710.15$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.67911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-79.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x478b…947fbacked USA75c700$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d43…d842backed USA77c647.43$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+66.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcab1…b2b1backed Serbia34c638.26$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.013013.3%4 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b85…6980backed USA63c614.95$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf374…ce1abacked Serbia7c600$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-21.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42dd…48b7backed Serbia22c600$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13240%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e37…381bbacked Serbia17c588.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Serbia5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44ac…7e94backed Serbia68c500$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e4a…311cbacked USA63c478.53$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.534100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+104.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked Serbia8c475$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.251010%1 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d61…fe3dbacked USA55c468.93$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6868…9205backed Serbia7c468.43$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed Serbia35c449.99$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.55446.3%25 W · 29 L+7.3wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+159.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xea8e…c9bbbacked Serbia13c414.08$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc611…0f9cbacked Serbia5c399.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b06…0b42backed Serbia5c399.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203125.8%8 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90e9…de83backed USA47c383.59$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.531136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick21cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked USA60c371.84$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.741346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49b8…762dbacked Serbia21c358.54$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x222a…62f7backed Serbia7c357.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-45.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc620…2da3backed Serbia67c352.58$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.43616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-75.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x001a…fc4cbacked USA75c332.88$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.51650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+60%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35f1…6600backed USA63c325$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.25560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf842…682dbacked USA45c319.48$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.17650%3 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+37.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7c8…24dcbacked Serbia16c315.81$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.13740.5%15 W · 22 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+27%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x95c9…4a6abacked Serbia45c300$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+29.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182b…f022backed Serbia6c300$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184233.3%14 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+70.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e91…b801backed USA78c274.93$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick36cpaid+35.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x69bc…577dbacked USA72c249.85$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.26333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-53.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x789e…61bdbacked USA67c239.72$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcd4…50fabacked USA70c237.34$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd465…0ab4backed Serbia9c230$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.630%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ee9…b576backed Serbia6c229.09$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.