Golf · resolved market

Will Justin Rose win the 2026 PGA Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x988705fdff46d99a14e7e6ae7200e49514c76459064bee2ff12d2fe8cf0c48ad

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $178,295
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $102,153

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $178,295 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Golf
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xacb2…b989backed Yes	4c	25,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-70.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd105…7b2cbacked Yes	2c	24,315$474 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$474.43	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-78.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e02…b178backed Yes	1c	16,332$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.73	114	12.3%14 W · 100 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd4ae…7aa6backed Yes	2c	14,318$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x041b…92a8backed Yes	2c	6,493$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.38	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35d6…679abacked Yes	1c	5,092$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	8cpaid	-85.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes	2c	5,068$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.45	117	12%14 W · 103 L	-23.7wins	-0.20per pick	32cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick
0x8226…2f4ebacked Yes	2c	4,363$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5e2…6078backed Yes	2c	3,936$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.73	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7f20…086abacked Yes	2c	3,450$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.1	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0475…ed7abacked Yes	3c	3,226$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.97	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes	2c	2,964$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.3	116	8.6%10 W · 106 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+133.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12a7…399bbacked Yes	2c	2,178$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.85	36	2.8%1 W · 35 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-92.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9414…53c9backed Yes	3c	2,010$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.35	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9403…cd0ebacked Yes	1c	1,667$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	35	2.9%1 W · 34 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-83.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf77b…e31dbacked Yes	2c	1,627$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.28	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f3f…64a2backed Yes	2c	1,535$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	3cpaid	+48.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x366c…50b4backed Yes	2c	1,471$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3333…6bc6backed Yes	2c	1,465$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aa7…e3d9backed Yes	1c	1,411$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.76	46	13%6 W · 40 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5871…0defbacked Yes	2c	1,385$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.55	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb39a…abedbacked Yes	2c	1,337$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.4	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5711…2f81backed Yes	4c	1,148$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	38	2.6%1 W · 37 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe73e…8a26backed Yes	1c	1,140$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.95	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.11per pick	6cpaid	+138.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff1b…5dfdbacked Yes	2c	1,109$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.85	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf720…1df4backed Yes	5c	1,067$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.67	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4889…359ebacked Yes	2c	999.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb094…bf7fbacked Yes	2c	922.35$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-65.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	866.12$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.71	295	3.7%11 W · 284 L	-5.4wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x790e…08f8backed Yes	2c	865.29$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.71	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb143…cadebacked Yes	1c	700$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.3	62	14.5%9 W · 53 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30bb…f258backed Yes	2c	516.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.26per pick	7cpaid	+214.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c11…9bc6backed Yes	3c	391.46$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 69. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Justin Rose win the 2026 PGA Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event