Golf · resolved market

Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 PGA Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfde5e95cf88afc8c9a1b1934c83fbcc38bdd4f39222d8a77ba7bf5cd36140829

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $164,794
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $94,184

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,794 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Golf
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb7f5…c669backed Yes	1c	18,453$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.92	68	7.4%5 W · 63 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Yes	4c	16,666$667 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$666.64	49	28.6%14 W · 35 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5711…2f81backed Yes	4c	13,128$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.94	38	2.6%1 W · 37 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe558…dcd2backed Yes	1c	11,533$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.61	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5fe…d475backed Yes	6c	8,489$478 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$478.08	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	4cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf92…4bfdbacked Yes	1c	5,644$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.72	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	-79.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26e2…1a63backed Yes	2c	4,574$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-87.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes	3c	4,093$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.25	117	12%14 W · 103 L	-23.7wins	-0.20per pick	32cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick
0x9b6b…3ba7backed Yes	1c	3,846$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-80.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc253…5800backed Yes	5c	3,764$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Yes	6c	3,449$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e02…b178backed Yes	1c	3,380$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	114	12.3%14 W · 100 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3dc4…7c1dbacked Yes	7c	3,178$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…62bebacked Yes	2c	2,696$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff1b…5dfdbacked Yes	2c	2,286$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9292…2cd1backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-45%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6f8…1335backed Yes	5c	1,834$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca4…aa92backed Yes	1c	1,600$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes	1c	1,520$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.71	116	8.6%10 W · 106 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+133.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4864…627cbacked Yes	5c	1,509$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed Yes	1c	1,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes	5c	1,455$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.68	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Yes	2c	1,200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.82	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd78d…81e0backed Yes	3c	1,065$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1332…2b23backed Yes	3c	875$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+92.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb259…8a59backed Yes	3c	821.87$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.42	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ae…f584backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	469.35$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.38	295	3.7%11 W · 284 L	-5.4wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5387…c91ebacked Yes	5c	407$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.94	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes	4c	393.21$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.3	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x946e…9749backed Yes	5c	201.2$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.13per pick	24cpaid	+95%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x24b9…f36ebacked Yes	5c	199.81$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.39	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 69. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 PGA Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event