TailMyPicks
Market

Golf · resolved market

Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 PGA Championship?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$210,723
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$126,427

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $210,723 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Golf
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd4ae…7aa6backed Yes3c45,973$1,260 inLost-$1,260100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd793…1c4abacked Yes3c25,249$750 inLost-$75080%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe507…1258backed Yes3c20,542$538 inLost-$537.9640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbfaf…7affbacked Yes1c20,000$100 inLost-$100456.7%3 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-87.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x452c…7449backed Yes2c16,034$397 inLost-$396.7640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xccc4…5fa6backed Yes2c10,000$220 inLost-$220263.8%1 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+174.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dad…4855backed Yes2c5,000$100 inLost-$10080%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf92…4bfdbacked Yes2c4,000$86 inLost-$86147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-79.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes1c2,800$23 inLost-$22.9250%0 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35d6…679abacked Yes2c2,005$50 inLost-$50293.4%1 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-85.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3010…a27cbacked Yes1c1,760$20 inLost-$20240%0 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca4…aa92backed Yes2c1,600$32 inLost-$32100%0 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19ee…446cbacked Yes3c1,560$40 inLost-$40515.9%3 W · 48 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick9cpaid+17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81da…5617backed Yes2c1,400$31 inLost-$30.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e02…b178backed Yes2c1,221$30 inLost-$30.3511412.3%14 W · 100 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-55.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c757$14 inLost-$14.38430%0 W · 43 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09a7…daf3backed Yes3c514.4$13 inLost-$12.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b48…8f19backed Yes2c500$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11ce…16b5backed Yes3c418.51$11 inLost-$11.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa011…792abacked Yes3c400$10 inLost-$1080%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3a8…b7b9backed Yes3c379.31$11 inLost-$11130%0 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ae1…6abdbacked Yes5c200$10 inLost-$102030%6 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+59.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No77c39.49$30 inWon+$9.086142.6%26 W · 35 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No77c15$12 inWon+$3.4771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 69. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.