Golf · resolved market

Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 PGA Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5068c9d5f4afe6fb8d5e40c4788ece35fa5188db35826e3bb712967bc85c3cc8

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $148,573
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $81,336

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,573 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Golf
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5e02…b178backed Yes	0c	27,347$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.24	114	12.3%14 W · 100 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Yes	9c	19,802$1,715 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,715.09	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes	7c	13,089$940 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$939.96	117	12%14 W · 103 L	-23.7wins	-0.20per pick	32cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick
0x1449…a618backed Yes	1c	6,207$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.18	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-80.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20e2…667fbacked Yes	1c	5,514$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.51	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe558…dcd2backed Yes	2c	5,331$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.97	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12a7…399bbacked Yes	1c	5,309$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.78	36	2.8%1 W · 35 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-92.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf584…2497backed Yes	1c	5,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+3.6wins	+0.21per pick	26cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	59+0.09 edge/pick
0x675c…2415backed Yes	1c	3,333$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	29	0%0 W · 29 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cfc…3335backed Yes	1c	3,008$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.9	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b29…b861backed Yes	9c	2,158$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes	1c	1,690$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.29	116	8.6%10 W · 106 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+133.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa11e…5ba7backed Yes	8c	1,200$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.26	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-2.6wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1616…1c4ebacked Yes	2c	1,184$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-10%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd91…c534backed Yes	11c	1,096$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.36	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3af2…5212backed Yes	4c	1,011$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2736…4f36backed Yes	11c	930.41$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c2…c069backed Yes	2c	853.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	23cpaid	-67.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf342…1e14backed Yes	3c	700.57$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.07	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46b9…b865backed Yes	5c	477.2$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa951…b33bbacked Yes	2c	476.19$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-61.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	6c	443.51$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.87	55	40%22 W · 33 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88a1…3400backed Yes	6c	386.43$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d0b…0874backed Yes	7c	300$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.7	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-63.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ea…7f8dbacked Yes	10c	288.46$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	53	15.1%8 W · 45 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+219.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20f7…5527backed Yes	10c	279$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.83	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes	7c	235$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.45	64	45.3%29 W · 35 L	+3.5wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d1b…b263backed Yes	10c	229.66$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.65	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d81…ff9ebacked Yes	6c	208.33$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+58.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe73e…8a26backed Yes	8c	199.09$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.28	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.11per pick	6cpaid	+138.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2801…ebdcbacked Yes	8c	194.81$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bd5…a3ccbacked Yes	8c	164.82$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.01	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Yes	10c	127$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.7	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6b35…4a36backed Yes	10c	104.34$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 69. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 PGA Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event