Golf · resolved market

Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 PGA Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa13f2a1a0aa043f7d83b4923b449beb2136799cd11600f5b998c9044e548334

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 18, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $241,652
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $138,699

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $241,652 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Golf
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc5fe…d475backed Yes	4c	62,785$2,801 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,800.87	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	4cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Yes	9c	18,074$1,634 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,633.63	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf584…2497backed Yes	0c	16,100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.2	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+3.6wins	+0.21per pick	26cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	59+0.09 edge/pick
0x5e02…b178backed Yes	0c	13,111$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.89	114	12.3%14 W · 100 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xb55d…6984backed Yes	0c	10,328$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	29	13.8%4 W · 25 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe507…1258backed Yes	5c	8,532$401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.99	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3379…f0b4backed Yes	4c	8,443$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.15	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.18per pick	22cpaid	+15%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8d9…df36backed Yes	6c	7,029$394 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$393.96	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-46.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5711…2f81backed Yes	8c	5,656$477 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$476.68	38	2.6%1 W · 37 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6f…72f2backed Yes	5c	3,988$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes	9c	3,898$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337.15	117	12%14 W · 103 L	-23.7wins	-0.20per pick	32cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick
0x675c…2415backed Yes	5c	3,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	29	0%0 W · 29 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1332…2b23backed Yes	5c	2,143$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+92.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5174…4fa3backed Yes	11c	1,849$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.33	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-61.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabf7…9820backed Yes	4c	1,360$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd761…9c18backed Yes	6c	1,350$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes	5c	1,068$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	24	4.2%1 W · 23 L	-2.9wins	-0.12per pick	16cpaid	-90.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x60cb…d854backed Yes	9c	1,000$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.18	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	15cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4afd…2019backed Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc97d…732bbacked Yes	3c	999.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.49	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+1.7wins	+0.13per pick	10cpaid	+153.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x63ed…b0f4backed Yes	4c	999.97$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.19per pick	31cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Yes	4c	852.46$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.68	49	28.6%14 W · 35 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda50…b8d5backed Yes	3c	820$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.66	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d0b…0874backed Yes	9c	719.4$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.63	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-63.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31c2…f1d3backed Yes	4c	500$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	+358.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x428b…5b25backed Yes	5c	480.4$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.76	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+88.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5871…0defbacked Yes	16c	465.6$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.75	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Yes	5c	452.11$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.57	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x5903…23ffbacked Yes	5c	435.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc681…bcd8backed Yes	5c	425$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.13	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66df…9811backed Yes	9c	336.17$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.37	81	18.5%15 W · 66 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-37%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dc6…79a0backed Yes	6c	321.71$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.97	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3333…6bc6backed Yes	5c	319.15$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfafd…8837backed Yes	5c	300.13$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+1.4wins	+0.13per pick	15cpaid	+219.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6df…dda7backed Yes	14c	299.99$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.9	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	6c	297.15$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.67	55	40%22 W · 33 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6274…7226backed Yes	5c	265.31$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+102.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4740…fa66backed Yes	10c	262.38$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a39…71dcbacked Yes	5c	259.96$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Yes	10c	259.8$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.97	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd515…14febacked Yes	12c	250$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.3	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc9…c555backed Yes	9c	210.03$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.84	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb53…c50bbacked Yes	5c	200.14$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-67.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x345f…d456backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb67…5ea3backed Yes	13c	180$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62bc…97acbacked Yes	6c	168.73$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.66	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	22cpaid	+158.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 69. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 PGA Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event