Golf · resolved market

Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 PGA Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x809e445a118bd7c032c56ea67dc316f0f28276486033537388073d6e3fae50e7

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $163,836
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $69,881

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,836 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Golf
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5d0b…0874backed Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-63.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3001…d5c3backed Yes	4c	15,000$525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$525	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.17per pick	3cpaid	+185.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd793…1c4abacked Yes	4c	13,589$540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe507…1258backed Yes	2c	12,947$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297.78	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xfa7d…a524backed Yes	0c	10,357$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5fe…d475backed Yes	2c	9,523$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.45	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	4cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4ae…7aa6backed Yes	8c	9,201$720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$720	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e02…b178backed Yes	3c	7,920$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.13	114	12.3%14 W · 100 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x675c…2415backed Yes	3c	6,286$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	29	0%0 W · 29 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x692e…ee58backed Yes	3c	4,794$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-43.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes	3c	4,300$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.9	50	4%2 W · 48 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-62.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9403…cd0ebacked Yes	3c	2,607$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	35	2.9%1 W · 34 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-83.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	1c	2,575$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.8	25	0%0 W · 25 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes	3c	2,170$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.78	140	43.6%61 W · 79 L	+10.1wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc701…21ebbacked Yes	3c	2,131$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.32	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ba2…1650backed Yes	4c	1,861$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.58	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca4…aa92backed Yes	4c	1,400$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.39	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4047…b217backed Yes	1c	1,357$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.54	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-78.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7803…c9afbacked Yes	3c	1,286$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dad…4855backed Yes	4c	1,201$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.24	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e26…6bacbacked Yes	3c	1,177$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x19ee…446cbacked Yes	4c	1,071$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.75	51	5.9%3 W · 48 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09a7…daf3backed Yes	3c	925.93$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Yes	2c	800$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	70	31.4%22 W · 48 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25c7…9179backed Yes	4c	754.32$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.91	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf15…2f3dbacked Yes	3c	685.71$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaea8…6d62backed Yes	4c	669.84$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-90.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	2c	626$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	43	0%0 W · 43 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed Yes	6c	625.51$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d81…ff9ebacked Yes	3c	571.43$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+58.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee1d…e134backed Yes	4c	540.54$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	8%2 W · 23 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16dd…adf5backed Yes	2c	483.12$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-90.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Yes	4c	467.03$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.81	52	26.9%14 W · 38 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 69. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 PGA Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event