Golf · resolved market

Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 PGA Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x850aa5eba34aedbdee16aa9c41770e832d90b8150fd02d0bc0d25e1804b62df1

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $186,691
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $110,822

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $186,691 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Golf
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf9ac…1eebbacked Yes	1c	35,038$511 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510.53	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc33a…3da3backed Yes	4c	19,678$699 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$699.19	25	16%4 W · 21 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe558…dcd2backed Yes	2c	17,585$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297.33	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes	3c	8,091$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.74	117	12%14 W · 103 L	-23.7wins	-0.20per pick	32cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick
0xa2cb…ad46backed Yes	4c	5,649$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.11	51	7.8%4 W · 47 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	+87.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9414…53c9backed Yes	0c	5,100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.4	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03d1…3990backed Yes	5c	3,576$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.17	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-86%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85dd…62d4backed Yes	4c	2,492$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf24…34c6backed Yes	1c	2,341$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.78	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa639…a48fbacked Yes	7c	1,903$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.16	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-53%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5139…9402backed Yes	1c	1,600$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19ee…446cbacked Yes	4c	1,426$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.32	51	5.9%3 W · 48 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes	4c	1,415$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.53	24	4.2%1 W · 23 L	-2.9wins	-0.12per pick	16cpaid	-90.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x35d6…679abacked Yes	5c	1,075$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	8cpaid	-85.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd78d…81e0backed Yes	4c	1,037$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c2…c069backed Yes	2c	1,003$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	23cpaid	-67.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc97d…732bbacked Yes	1c	1,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.27	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+1.7wins	+0.13per pick	10cpaid	+153.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4889…359ebacked Yes	1c	1,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes	3c	954.01$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.12	116	8.6%10 W · 106 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+133.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac5e…87d1backed Yes	4c	951.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2dc9…c555backed Yes	4c	704.55$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47d3…bd78backed Yes	2c	650.58$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9aa7…e3d9backed Yes	4c	639.43$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.23	46	13%6 W · 40 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf356…f7d4backed Yes	2c	625$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ea…7f8dbacked Yes	5c	608.23$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	53	15.1%8 W · 45 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+219.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Yes	6c	518.18$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.52	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x85a7…2072backed Yes	3c	502.04$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.57	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+145.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7976…e3c4backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84f6…e46cbacked Yes	6c	499.99$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-1.6wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1956…3e7bbacked Yes	4c	499.78$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.49	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-43.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaeca…865dbacked Yes	2c	456.49$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf342…1e14backed Yes	6c	449.99$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…5bf7backed Yes	4c	445.71$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.21	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7468…3d24backed Yes	8c	444.42$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.58	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x455c…e548backed Yes	5c	400$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9456…4f9fbacked Yes	3c	399.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ab0…a695backed Yes	4c	355.56$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9eb…e3e8backed Yes	4c	312.8$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.64	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb67…5ea3backed Yes	3c	300$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e06…0e80backed Yes	5c	300$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9118…b410backed Yes	4c	250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes	5c	227$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.9	140	43.6%61 W · 79 L	+10.1wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21dd…0b83backed Yes	8c	224.55$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.29	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e44…9d02backed Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-2.0wins	-0.22per pick	34cpaid	-70%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 69. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 PGA Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event