AI · resolved market
Elon no longer world's richest before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cd451a0d80d831a3b6cf322800236c37da1007f7e0028313d7630c32075f653
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 5c | 5,667$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.27 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed Yes | 4c | 3,412$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.03 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 9c | 3,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,401$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 82 | 1.2%1 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 2,207$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.33 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5d…f2c1backed Yes | 2c | 2,168$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 1,826$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0716…f036backed Yes | 3c | 1,747$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 2c | 1,604$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf595…8413backed Yes | 6c | 1,552$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,434$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1921…dc3bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,259$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 2c | 1,186$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 11c | 1,179$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.25 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e87…28d9backed Yes | 11c | 1,046$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…f6cabacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5348…e4ffbacked Yes | 4c | 959.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…ce0abacked Yes | 12c | 800$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…34bebacked Yes | 7c | 458.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…72f8backed Yes | 17c | 441.18$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ed…96e1backed Yes | 8c | 309.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 4c | 295.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…68d9backed Yes | 14c | 276.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc315…90b0backed Yes | 8c | 252.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5d…2964backed Yes | 4c | 244.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…086abacked Yes | 17c | 231.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3e…341bbacked Yes | 15c | 220$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29fd…de15backed Yes | 13c | 199.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 6c | 199.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…8eb0backed Yes | 8c | 199.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeec…e593backed Yes | 10c | 195.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bbc1backed Yes | 7c | 164.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…1ccfbacked Yes | 10c | 145.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 21cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf14c…4e18backed Yes | 14c | 128.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…4736backed Yes | 15c | 120.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 119$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f72…5eafbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16a7…f7c5backed Yes | 14c | 103.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c34…8fe0backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df5…8b4fbacked Yes | 16c | 99.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…68d5backed Yes | 12c | 84.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 16c | 69.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7798…e98ebacked Yes | 17c | 64.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.