Fed Rates · resolved market
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa377950920e161c15d8b96206848ebe676568380524ce9f8fddefaed00a8a868
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 18c | 8,887$1,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.88 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 76c | 6,644$5,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,576 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 74c | 5,371$3,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,394.7 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Yes | 28c | 4,554$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb61d…74d2backed Yes | 16c | 4,156$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 21c | 3,000$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.63 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a7…3db4backed Yes | 16c | 2,996$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 21c | 2,696$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.26 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 18c | 2,406$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.88 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 20c | 2,305$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.04 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed Yes | 21c | 1,655$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.05 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 14c | 1,500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 78c | 1,437$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.06 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 18c | 1,384$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes | 27c | 1,190$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.95 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee58…b704backed Yes | 8c | 1,094$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed No | 78c | 1,062$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95d…a3aebacked No | 71c | 977.22$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed No | 77c | 670$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 6c | 670$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 614.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 607.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…8908backed Yes | 11c | 582.65$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 14cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 581.64$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.9 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x924f…134bbacked No | 80c | 533.73$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 10c | 502$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 77c | 478.3$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.64 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 17c | 405.03$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.86 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2615…c16dbacked No | 77c | 388$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed No | 77c | 384$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +461.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 27c | 310.09$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.7 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 14c | 299.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…f3afbacked Yes | 5c | 285.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 22c | 276.34$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.34 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 17c | 266.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf602…335dbacked Yes | 6c | 240.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 26c | 227.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55d7…35f4backed Yes | 24c | 220.6$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 38c | 213.98$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.31 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2341…0e3abacked No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -56%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4656…ba7fbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5c…7a2dbacked Yes | 17c | 195$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4a…a1dcbacked Yes | 21c | 193.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 13c | 155$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 15c | 152.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf77f…e871backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 75c | 145.79$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24d5…d94fbacked No | 79c | 133$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 22c | 132.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed Yes | 18c | 131$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd86…1f67backed No | 80c | 129.21$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33c5…2230backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59cd…716fbacked Yes | 17c | 124.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…ab3dbacked Yes | 22c | 119$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x231e…9297backed No | 62c | 107$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…115fbacked No | 79c | 101.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…22f9backed Yes | 16c | 92.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…9e90backed Yes | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 75c | 87.42$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked No | 68c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…4d73backed Yes | 23c | 79.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5355…fae9backed Yes | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 30c | 72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…1047backed No | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd704…cf56backed No | 76c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a4…84a0backed No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68d8…af58backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05fc…f78ebacked No | 56c | 45.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 73c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc489…a47abacked Yes | 26c | 42.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 76c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb48…19b3backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…9076backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +5.0wins | +0.42per pick | 50cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…1ab0backed No | 77c | 35.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 31c | 32.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x941b…0e14backed No | 77c | 32.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce8…df43backed No | 65c | 25.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe856…3789backed No | 78c | 25.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 77c | 21.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 76c | 13.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x105d…a695backed No | 77c | 13.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.