World Politics · resolved market
Netherlands Parliamentary Election: DENK vs BBB
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f1826a4cb95c52e3790205d3ca2c0dd9dc34689281aaca0e5b781615513889f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BBBof DENK, BBB
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06dc…af59backed DENK | 45c | 2,313$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.26 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked BBB | 57c | 1,152$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.03 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a24…1219backed DENK | 20c | 470$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed BBB | 52c | 339.51$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.36 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked DENK | 41c | 333$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.53 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c94…816fbacked DENK | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -81%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked BBB | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed DENK | 48c | 288.67$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.64 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf96d…df3ebacked BBB | 77c | 231.11$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d74…ffb3backed DENK | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x084a…6d19backed BBB | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed DENK | 35c | 177.59$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.76 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb31…fdb4backed BBB | 70c | 163.48$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac0…5e77backed BBB | 66c | 150.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed DENK | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed BBB | 49c | 137.96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.74 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4306…0171backed BBB | 58c | 120.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed BBB | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +223.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…5534backed DENK | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed DENK | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked BBB | 50c | 83.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked BBB | 49c | 73.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…32afbacked DENK | 50c | 70.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe300…da5abacked BBB | 64c | 62.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…7c35backed DENK | 49c | 60.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab6…50f1backed BBB | 49c | 55.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked BBB | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe45c…fb69backed DENK | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…ff17backed BBB | 60c | 49.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4e…f547backed BBB | 50c | 49.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed BBB | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e09…220abacked DENK | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d26…3f12backed BBB | 49c | 34.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…506cbacked BBB | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…5670backed DENK | 64c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…3c7bbacked DENK | 61c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed BBB | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4e…10ebbacked BBB | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5355…fae9backed BBB | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…0ac1backed BBB | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.