World Politics · resolved market
Will VVD win 18 or more seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5519c046494ba8e2e5fe03b83e868fd67d5b3ca41b67898c4f70ee8bd84b7851
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 64c | 6,000$3,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,169.98 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +11.0wins | +0.18per pick | 31cpaid | +90%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked No | 38c | 2,649$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.23 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa95f…2bdbbacked No | 29c | 1,724$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3154…e615backed No | 51c | 1,009$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.86 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed No | 46c | 822.22$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.47 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…7d0fbacked No | 40c | 750$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 57c | 714.48$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.15 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 41c | 711.89$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.13 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4903…e53ebacked Yes | 62c | 613.11$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0065…02f3backed Yes | 65c | 464.35$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.48 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.40per pick | 45cpaid | +272.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7b…cdbebacked Yes | 64c | 398.77$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 41c | 299.99$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.93 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79eb…f471backed No | 35c | 283.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 45c | 263.08$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.12 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 54c | 248.36$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.88 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 29c | 240.68$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.95 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a47…2f43backed No | 38c | 197.59$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa344…8141backed No | 38c | 175$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb207…bbd0backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…285abacked No | 43c | 170.23$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf084…26c9backed Yes | 59c | 170.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 38c | 163.77$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.89 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked No | 47c | 158.74$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.61 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 63c | 134.61$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.23 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad7d…f545backed No | 43c | 134.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ee…19f6backed Yes | 58c | 130$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.50per pick | 22cpaid | +1,036.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb43c…d732backed Yes | 54c | 128.87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +336.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4e…f547backed No | 48c | 103.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +223.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc7…2229backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…f50ebacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -68%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…32afbacked Yes | 64c | 94.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 60c | 94$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf11…3cfebacked Yes | 68c | 93.36$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…06b7backed No | 43c | 88.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68f…1fd9backed Yes | 65c | 84.01$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb73a…542cbacked Yes | 62c | 77.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33f7…7a46backed Yes | 50c | 76.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x407a…d0d3backed Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda12…157cbacked Yes | 75c | 66.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…d632backed No | 35c | 64.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 56c | 64.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Yes | 62c | 62.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa191…7946backed Yes | 53c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 32c | 54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…e5c6backed Yes | 59c | 53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked No | 31c | 52.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…f7bdbacked Yes | 63c | 52.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 48c | 51.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8be8…9d93backed No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +79%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 44c | 48.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2b…a38dbacked Yes | 62c | 48.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a8…74bdbacked No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50ff…6622backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 46c | 40.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5355…fae9backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe22…d483backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…8bdebacked No | 44c | 31.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41f…4f69backed Yes | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +64%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ef…8694backed Yes | 65c | 22.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VVD win 18 or more seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?this page
- Will VVD win 14–15 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will VVD win 16–17 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will VVD win fewer than 14 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.