TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia recapture territory in Kucheriv Yar by November 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$224,388
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$208,633

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $224,388 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 280 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd44e…67e2backed No49c14,014$6,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,107.0914456.9%82 W · 62 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No70c13,733$9,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,083.0124258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes33c13,678$4,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,552.8811647.4%55 W · 61 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8631…9a73backed No56c11,445$6,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,062.138549.4%42 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09b2…3ca0backed Yes50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.71435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick57cpaid-28%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x464e…1a67backed Yes49c9,550$4,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,694.991625%4 W · 12 L-4.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-61.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes14c9,071$1,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,287.652218.2%4 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-63.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed No65c8,313$5,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,911.9714750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes14c7,543$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025.6325311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d91…3578backed No55c6,973$3,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,153.138055%44 W · 36 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes17c5,429$947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947.295123.5%12 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5004…8601backed No77c4,823$3,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.33475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f9e…be96backed No58c3,576$2,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,506.82661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb83a…2a7ebacked Yes27c3,554$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.431010%1 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-74.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x59e4…3130backed Yes27c3,356$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910.07837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-41.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87d0…57c5backed Yes3c3,000$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.112965.5%19 W · 10 L+5.5wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+26%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbcb4…b811backed Yes51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,529.99812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.35per pick48cpaid-76.9%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes9c2,944$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.3915217.8%27 W · 125 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked No61c2,389$1,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$937.994841.7%20 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43ec…4612backed Yes26c2,250$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5756540%26 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes32c2,200$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.987247.2%34 W · 38 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f98…d72fbacked Yes12c2,127$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24640%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30014920.8%31 W · 118 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1d…e3c3backed Yes24c2,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.9930%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes36c1,986$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.4wins-0.42per pick55cpaid-70.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbd49…0d55backed Yes41c1,944$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.454936.7%18 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-20.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,837$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.015327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed Yes44c1,679$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.0513622.8%31 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba5e…6c40backed No61c1,556$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.152060%12 W · 8 L+5.4wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+58.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes39c1,550$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.244348.8%21 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d1b…e75cbacked No72c1,508$1,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.753764.9%24 W · 13 L+6.7wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+53.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked No50c1,387$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.112547.2%59 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4da…f756backed No64c1,354$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.061258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf9e…518ebacked No46c1,270$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.369962.6%62 W · 37 L+12.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes3c1,233$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.075722.8%13 W · 44 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x94d0…9e65backed No52c1,204$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.289257.6%53 W · 39 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No68c1,174$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.5523435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes36c1,154$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.4714355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No46c1,149$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.346647%31 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes31c1,116$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.797727.3%21 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3ce…f829backed No58c1,064$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.031782.4%14 W · 3 L+5.7wins+0.33per pick49cpaid+124.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x0620…8c8dbacked Yes45c1,012$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-65.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed Yes59c1,000$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2408615.1%13 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes33c999.99$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3304146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes15c999.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15011530.4%35 W · 80 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c51…af7ebacked Yes55c999.98$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.991136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b0…ce2cbacked No73c971.29$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.112969%20 W · 9 L+3.9wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+36.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x81f3…1043backed Yes11c936.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100100%0 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes52c881.34$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.35143.1%22 W · 29 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb572…33a1backed Yes53c860.99$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.91425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x59fb…eceabacked Yes53c847.94$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.4130%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4181…e4fbbacked No74c829.45$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.491450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f29…0760backed Yes42c799.98$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.491752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e75…0143backed Yes61c792.31$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.35837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7fa…44e5backed Yes32c778.12$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b8b…3c39backed Yes39c762.88$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-57.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xffc7…36b8backed Yes37c753.47$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.22922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2140…5790backed No76c646.05$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.05475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f7…fa11backed No65c615$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.44757.4%27 W · 20 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9510…9d19backed Yes42c613.64$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes22c600$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1323551.4%18 W · 17 L+5.6wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+50.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes41c599.99$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2461010%1 W · 9 L-3.7wins-0.37per pick47cpaid-81.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4b86…3c74backed Yes53c599.98$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.9920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fc0…4cadbacked No70c576.18$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.012176.2%16 W · 5 L+5.7wins+0.27per pick49cpaid+82.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x1e07…e66fbacked Yes18c555.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No76c526.32$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.3214147.5%67 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed Yes30c500$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1521216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-69.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7253…89edbacked Yes39c500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1951442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes9c473.6$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.52630.8%8 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick21cpaid+0.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c45…7786backed No77c471.77$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.43785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick77cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No54c432.69$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.7526238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x88ae…e412backed No75c429.99$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.53268.8%22 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b58…f7cbbacked Yes47c429.81$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41cb…a5dfbacked No53c419.79$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.4810343.7%45 W · 58 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ecf…afe2backed No58c417.24$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.242119%4 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-67%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7dc…b1d3backed No60c405$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.31258.3%7 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick32cpaid+128.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd486…2287backed Yes16c404.94$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d01…1645backed Yes39c402$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.781030%3 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick53cpaid-56.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x98b7…4947backed Yes56c400$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2241533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0149…fa64backed Yes51c399.99$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.99540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+150.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc93c…52f1backed Yes26c384.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011839.8%47 W · 71 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf43…ddf6backed No61c377.15$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.09333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8d8…8d55backed No67c375$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.92751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd553…6af5backed Yes25c357$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.251926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-29.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes37c347.87$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.8130837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ff2…7c02backed No59c338.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.989475.5%71 W · 23 L+10.9wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No64c338.61$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.373743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x680a…77fdbacked Yes30c329.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde89…e378backed No47c319.15$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.15875%6 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+154.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6945…4402backed No38c316.05$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.331266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+110.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0102…32afbacked Yes64c310.43$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001729.4%5 W · 12 L-4.2wins-0.25per pick54cpaid-51.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa5b3…0476backed Yes33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes53c300$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15910651.9%55 W · 51 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc3b…e1e3backed Yes28c300$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdaa…6f38backed Yes34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid+95.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x71f3…28d1backed No60c290$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.94252.4%22 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ab4…21ccbacked Yes11c284.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4d6…9357backed Yes36c280.85$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.221957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+27.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fbe…2030backed No76c280$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.