TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Devils vs. Maple Leafs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Devilsof Devils, Maple Leafs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,931,174
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,073,478

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,931,174 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3657…6b14backed Devils50c813,177$406,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406,736.544452.3%23 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed88…f3c4backed Maple Leafs50c474,046$237,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237,023.059340.9%38 W · 55 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Maple Leafs50c200,000$100,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100,0004949%24 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x145c…43bcbacked Devils49c188,663$92,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96,227.773148.4%15 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b3d…7422backed Maple Leafs53c150,084$79,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79,256.8114057.9%81 W · 59 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7606…2836backed Devils35c114,285$39,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74,286.692254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Maple Leafs51c62,086$31,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,411.1688151.2%451 W · 430 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Maple Leafs51c49,858$25,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,424.5316743.1%72 W · 95 L-12.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Maple Leafs50c38,821$19,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,519.5313251.5%68 W · 64 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc29a…7816backed Devils48c28,098$13,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,741.88240.2%33 W · 49 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Devils48c27,378$13,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,360.65650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Maple Leafs52c25,000$13,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,0005745.6%26 W · 31 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb351…5fbfbacked Maple Leafs51c25,000$12,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,749.99633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-45.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Maple Leafs9c21,942$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,974.7944848.9%219 W · 229 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Maple Leafs50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0002445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Maple Leafs39c15,951$6,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,188.291,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Maple Leafs49c15,281$7,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,424.0692848.5%450 W · 478 L+17.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Maple Leafs49c14,922$7,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,350.140550.9%206 W · 199 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Maple Leafs50c14,666$7,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,368.3921850.9%111 W · 107 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Maple Leafs45c14,659$6,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,667.4158841.8%246 W · 342 L-20.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6253…20a6backed Devils47c12,512$5,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,591.74447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Devils47c12,111$5,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,418.9514253.5%76 W · 66 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+15.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Devils48c12,000$5,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,2401,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Maple Leafs50c10,300$5,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,1501,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Maple Leafs52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,2002330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-30.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Devils34c9,000$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,939.853158.1%18 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+51.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a89…2f26backed Maple Leafs52c8,995$4,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,677.470547.7%336 W · 369 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Maple Leafs50c8,000$4,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,010.4363249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc210…f0cabacked Maple Leafs52c7,500$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9003246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Maple Leafs53c7,500$3,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9756737.3%25 W · 42 L-9.5wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-27.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1d85…228ebacked Devils50c7,496$3,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,7485253.8%28 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Maple Leafs52c6,968$3,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,614.2941246.4%191 W · 221 L-24.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x08a4…5c3fbacked Maple Leafs52c6,000$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,12030551.5%157 W · 148 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7197…14c8backed Devils49c5,929$2,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,023.866254.8%34 W · 28 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Maple Leafs51c5,000$2,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,525.021,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Maple Leafs52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6004450%22 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f84…e0fbbacked Maple Leafs52c4,710$2,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,426.762245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e24…3b36backed Maple Leafs52c4,360$2,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,267.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7292…6bd3backed Maple Leafs53c4,142$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,200.086046.7%28 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e85…bb56backed Maple Leafs51c4,099$2,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,090.51936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x544b…897dbacked Devils49c4,000$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0401100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e6f…ffaabacked Maple Leafs53c4,000$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,12011947.9%57 W · 62 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Devils48c4,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0801546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x31a1…7975backed Devils49c3,898$1,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,987.96520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-59.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Devils49c3,723$1,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,898.9415646.2%72 W · 84 L-8.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5799…07a4backed Maple Leafs52c3,673$1,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,910475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+50%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bff…331cbacked Maple Leafs52c3,547$1,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,844.4742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Maple Leafs52c3,425$1,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,780.4419451.5%100 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Maple Leafs39c3,417$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,324.711,40647%661 W · 745 L+58.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Maple Leafs51c3,282$1,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,673.9269550.1%348 W · 347 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f02…2d67backed Devils48c3,200$1,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,664560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfbc…d51abacked Maple Leafs53c3,200$1,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,69630%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Maple Leafs49c3,050$1,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,487.0468449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Devils48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,56093953.6%503 W · 436 L+29.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Devils49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,53075251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Maple Leafs51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,53030552.5%160 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Devils48c2,974$1,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,561.337847.4%179 W · 199 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed Maple Leafs51c2,858$1,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,457.662955.2%16 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x305e…7d29backed Maple Leafs51c2,733$1,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3941936.8%7 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-23.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Maple Leafs28c2,733$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.4389636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8813…47e6backed Maple Leafs50c2,600$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,310540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa61d…22f6backed Devils47c2,510$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,330.130549.2%150 W · 155 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Devils47c2,500$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,32530447.4%144 W · 160 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51a6…a31ebacked Maple Leafs52c2,500$1,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,302.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Devils48c2,246$1,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,167.9230848.4%149 W · 159 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7626…be08backed Devils48c2,182$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,134.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08dd…ba14backed Devils48c2,150$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1181100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9b1…2c46backed Maple Leafs52c2,100$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0921942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-23.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x618d…aadcbacked Devils48c2,100$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,091.992454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Maple Leafs53c2,070$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.4420147.8%96 W · 105 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xade8…b0bdbacked Maple Leafs48c2,052$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.917149.3%35 W · 36 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Devils49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.8243743%188 W · 249 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9170…a3b7backed Devils49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.82250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Devils48c2,041$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,067.187447%411 W · 463 L+3.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x770a…984ebacked Maple Leafs53c2,040$1,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,081.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0944…6771backed Maple Leafs50c2,015$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.510145.5%46 W · 55 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Devils50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00042847.2%202 W · 226 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x111c…2ac5backed Devils49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0202147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc864…97dfbacked Maple Leafs52c1,977$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0283053.3%16 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Maple Leafs50c1,907$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.911,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Maple Leafs51c1,890$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.211,63650.4%825 W · 811 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe11c…49efbacked Devils48c1,852$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963.083100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+81.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcce5…bdafbacked Maple Leafs51c1,826$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.082839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-31.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked Maple Leafs51c1,800$918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91825447.2%120 W · 134 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdda2…4375backed Devils48c1,800$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.993650%18 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dab…3cc4backed Maple Leafs52c1,657$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.5640%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2085…8ad2backed Devils49c1,656$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.62333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd3e…2360backed Devils50c1,623$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x747b…26febacked Maple Leafs51c1,622$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.45425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-60.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Maple Leafs51c1,543$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.651,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0862…3f4ebacked Devils48c1,500$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Maple Leafs50c1,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7507157.7%41 W · 30 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xadbd…fe34backed Maple Leafs53c1,500$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3248…aad4backed Devils48c1,463$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.595152.9%27 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f40…bd86backed Maple Leafs52c1,404$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.077152.1%37 W · 34 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75fa…5959backed Maple Leafs51c1,250$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.2520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5c5…381ebacked Devils48c1,150$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…a01fbacked Devils48c1,132$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3af…749fbacked Maple Leafs53c1,042$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.261241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x676b…90d4backed Devils48c1,042$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.67887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.32per pick56cpaid+64.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.