NHL · resolved market
Devils vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3200bd4074a2d17e6a027037ca09babbc6c5bd8ffb6a112be51a5dd1875bc1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd33b…8ed9backed Under | 46c | 35,735$16,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,438.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfe…fd89backed Over | 54c | 30,000$16,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,800 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2185…f85abacked Over | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Under | 46c | 2,500$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Over | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.85 | 183 | 45.9%84 W · 99 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 46c | 1,801$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.63 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4874…7123backed Under | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3d…4ab1backed Over | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc030…7372backed Under | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1c…2b46backed Over | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x562f…9c04backed Over | 54c | 800$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7425…c079backed Over | 54c | 700$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea11…551abacked Under | 46c | 700$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 47cpaid | -59%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6f…ffaabacked Over | 54c | 600$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 119 | 47.9%57 W · 62 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 338 | 37.9%128 W · 210 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 305.14$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.43 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 45c | 180$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…a062backed Over | 55c | 180$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Over | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0f…a394backed Under | 48c | 103.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 54c | 88.38$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x731c…a252backed Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +27%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 45c | 30.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea5…cc71backed Over | 55c | 30.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Devils vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5this page
- Devils vs. Maple LeafsDevils won
- Devils vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Devils won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.