NHL · resolved market
Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78fbdeef34c028c3e32a724c75e5612629dc43f303fc6e70a9e075945a12bdf9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Devilsof Maple Leafs, Devils
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $161,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $181,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2185…f85abacked Devils | 71c | 61,291$43,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,774.39 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x562f…9c04backed Devils | 71c | 30,000$21,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,700 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…5432backed Devils | 71c | 16,275$11,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,786.12 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3791…6858backed Maple Leafs | 29c | 15,125$4,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,386.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290b…4bd1backed Maple Leafs | 29c | 10,680$3,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,097.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Maple Leafs | 30c | 10,000$2,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,950 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…509dbacked Maple Leafs | 29c | 9,464$2,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,744.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…e379backed Maple Leafs | 29c | 8,578$2,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,487.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffe…4909backed Maple Leafs | 29c | 7,616$2,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,208.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x264e…dc8abacked Maple Leafs | 29c | 7,544$2,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,187.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31d2…48edbacked Devils | 69c | 6,662$4,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,065.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe87…c3ebbacked Devils | 69c | 6,485$4,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,010.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…72e0backed Maple Leafs | 29c | 6,321$1,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,833.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6581…b2e2backed Maple Leafs | 29c | 6,252$1,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,813.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd0…6ea6backed Maple Leafs | 29c | 5,834$1,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,691.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…6bd9backed Maple Leafs | 29c | 5,239$1,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,519.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc207…46e5backed Maple Leafs | 29c | 5,006$1,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,451.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x109d…0a19backed Devils | 69c | 4,163$2,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca11…1167backed Devils | 69c | 4,015$2,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6d…daa3backed Devils | 69c | 3,973$2,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,231.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35ff…3c46backed Devils | 69c | 3,929$2,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x495e…7ae8backed Devils | 69c | 3,655$2,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…e409backed Maple Leafs | 29c | 3,632$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Maple Leafs | 29c | 3,475$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.75 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6111…555bbacked Devils | 69c | 3,329$2,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…296dbacked Devils | 69c | 3,284$2,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af9…738bbacked Devils | 69c | 3,238$2,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c19…9268backed Devils | 69c | 2,449$1,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c3…74a6backed Devils | 69c | 2,395$1,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1a…67f8backed Devils | 69c | 1,908$1,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Maple Leafs | 29c | 1,823$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.65 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…8f4ebacked Devils | 69c | 1,807$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae6…5c34backed Devils | 69c | 1,757$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ed…7a01backed Maple Leafs | 30c | 833$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.9 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…49a2backed Devils | 70c | 833$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.9 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Maple Leafs | 30c | 676.43$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.82 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Maple Leafs | 31c | 209.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 158 | 39.9%63 W · 95 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Maple Leafs | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Maple Leafs | 31c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa4…a1bfbacked Devils | 71c | 40.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa304…9311backed Devils | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)this page
- Devils vs. Maple LeafsDevils won
- Devils vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Devils vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.